James Piercey | The Dream Shake

Rockets may have to consolidate their roster

2026-03-12T09:09:39-04:00

It’s time for harsh truths. Cold, unrelenting reality. Words must no longer be minced.

The Houston Rockets’ situation has materially worsened in 2025-26.

Place the blame where you will. Ime Udoka’s offense lacks sophistication. Rafael Stone picked Jalen Green with the most consequential draft pick of the rebuild. Kevin Durant has a burner.

Each of the young players is flawed. This won’t devolve into a “who are the Rockets trading” piece. It’s a tangentially related “the Rockets will have to trade someone” piece.

Again: Cold, unrelenting reality.

Rockets’ rebuild did not go according to plan

It may be cold, but it shouldn’t be particularly surprising.

Historically, this is the rebuilding cycle, whether a team tanks or not. You have low expectations as a young team, start winning games as an up-and-coming squad, the expectations rise, and then you see if any of your young players can meet them at the highest level. If even one can, you’ve found your franchise player:

If nobody does, then nobody is safe.

That’s when consolidation happens. It’s a dirty word for “young core” enthusiasts. Fine, but NBA years are like dog years – each year is more than a year.

In a couple of seasons, the Rockets’ “young core” will be an “in-prime core”. If you think they project as title contenders, it would be impossible for us to have a conversation. I think that’s utterly delusional.

(Luckily, this is not a conversation, and you are a captive).

Sorry, I do. Let’s talk about it. Alperen Sengun has regressed to his previous standard on defense. He’s as inefficient as ever on offense. If this looks like a franchise player to you…again, delusion is the word.

The same goes for Amen Thompson. I’m not trying to play favorites. His one-level scoring will be exposed in the postseason. Even if Houston ditched Sengun for a floor spacing big and ran a pick-and-spread offense around Thompson, there’s little evidence that it would be viable. The Spurs would love to defend that offense in a ~~seven game~~ four game series.

Reed Sheppard? The last bastion of hope. This is the one player who it’s too soon to dismiss. He’s been outstanding as a sophomore. Yet, as early as it would be to dismiss him, it would be equally early to coronate him. All of which is to say, it would be better to keep him, but he shouldn’t hold up consolidation either.

Moreover, even the idea of running a “team first, no franchise player” team is problematic. To make that work, the synergy needs to be perfect. It isn’t with this team. Sengun and Sheppard are a rough defensive pairing. Sengun and Thompson are a poor offensive pairing.

This is the situation the Rockets are in. They tanked for three years (plus a bonus year of reaping the Nets’ rewards), and they didn’t net a franchise-caliber player or a perfectly constructed roster. They just didn’t.

It’s not as egregiously unfortunate as many will frame it. In that entire window, the only high lottery picks who turned out to be one of those have been Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham. Even Paolo Banchero, the patron saint of Rockets’ would-bes, hasn’t met that bar. This happens. It’s happened before. The question is this:

What happens when it happens?

Rockets need to rebuild the rebuild

The year is 2018. The Toronto Raptors are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference almost annually, but they are second by such a massive margin that it’s moot. The team is homegrown. It’s talented. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl. It is never going to win a championship as constructed:

So, they trade for Kawhi Leonard.

The year is now 2019. LeBron James has joined the Lakers for no reason other than they’re the Lakers. That may break the analogy for you, but the Rockets did land Kevin Durant for just a bit more than nothing, so the situations are comparable enough. Beyond James, the Lakers have a similar collection of strong, but sub-elite talent. Brandon Ingram. Lonzo Ball. Josh Hart. Julius Randle. None of these guys are a viable co-star for James:

So, they trade for Anthony Davis.

Turn the clock back further. Now it’s 2007. Sorry, the time machine is on the fritz. The Boston Celtics have a solid group of young talent. Rajan Rondo, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green. Not going to win a championship, etc.

Yada yada yada, Kevin Garnett.

Take a deep look in the mirror. Be brutally honest with yourself. Take a look at this Rockets core.

Do we have Baby Jokic, Turbo Igoudala, White Curry, and wings? Or, does this look a bit more like Siakam, Anunoby, and Poeltl. Ingram, Ball, and Hart.

(OK, it’s probably better than Rondo and Jefferson).

So, what should the Rockets do?

The Rockets need to make a decision soon

It doesn’t have to be this summer. It doesn’t have to be Giannis. If the Rockets want to kick the can, they can wait to see if they can find a franchise-caliber diamond in the rough in the 2027 draft. Heck, they could wait for the 2029 draft. They have major skin in that game with multiple swap rights with potential lottery teams, but good luck selling Tilman Fertitta on waiting four more years for a “guy”.

So Antetokounmpo should be on the table. Nothing should be sacred between these walls. Still, Antetokounmpo is not the perfect answer. No matter who the Rockets move, they’ll be pairing him with another non-spacer unless they’re moving both Sengun and Thompson.

Alternatively, Antetokounmpo is almost certainly the best player who’s going to shake loose during the Rockets’ consolidation window. Remember: That window isn’t particularly wide. Once these guys are in-prime players, teams will be thinking about their next deal. In two seasons, Alperen Sengun will be two (or three, pending his player option) seasons away from his first non-rookie deal.

As it stands, Reed Sheppard is an outstanding value on his rookie contract. When it comes time for his rookie extension, his team will have to answer (theme alert) difficult questions. The same holds for Amen Thompson, only a year sooner. How much do you pay the best defensive wing in basketball if he’s a non-shooting role player?

None of this is optimal, but can we be realistic for a moment? The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, and Dylan Harper would be the Rockets’ franchise player. The Thunder. Period.

Sure, that’s just two teams. Otherwise, as Nikola Jokic eventually ages, the Rockets have an opportunity to solidify themselves as the third-best team in the Western Conference for years to come.

…Hang the banner.

The third-best team in the conference consolidates, especially with another half-decade as the fourth-best team in front of them. It isn’t good enough to win an NBA championship.

This isn’t what we wanted. It wasn’t Plan A. Historically speaking, it is the de facto Plan B.

Rockets fans will say that our guys are not being optimized. There’s some truth in that. Ime Udoka’s read-and-react offense is suboptimal for a roster that’s light on pass/dribble/shoot players. Yet, that points to the broader issue:

This roster is light on pass/dribble/shoot guys.

It’s heavy on specialists. Players who are outlier strong in one area, but struggle in another. The closest player to reaching pass/dribble/shoot in the young core is Sheppard, and only time will tell if Udoka can scheme around his defensive shortcomings.

Maybe you love these kids. Perhaps you’ve grown attached. That’s cute, but if you take a long, honest look at the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, it’s impossible to come away feeling like the Rockets have enough.

Harsh, but true.

A way-too-early look at some offseason Rockets Free Agency targets

2026-03-10T21:05:55-04:00

As Tyus Jones joins the Denver Nuggets, the chorus of boos grows louder.

Houston Rockets fans wanted him. It made some intuitive sense. Jones’ best NBA seasons have seen him marry passing volume with a low turnover rate in a way that, frankly, only Fred VanVleet really does. So why wouldn’t Rafael Stone want him as a VanVleet replacement?

Well, he’s not particularly…good? Yes, Jones is a steady game manager, but his total inability to create his own shot and his diminutive size have contributed to a -2.2 Box Plus/Minus (BPM) this year. Signing him to make entry passes to Alperen Sengun and not turn the ball over for a few minutes per game would have been defensible, but sticking with JD Davidson is probably even better.

So, it seems like another quiet transactional season for Rafael Stone. This summer may be the same. The Rockets have consistently signalled that they want to see this young core, plus Kevin Durant, alongside Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams. Still, they may look to make some low-cost signings in free agency.

Here are players they should take a look at.

Dante Exum, G/F

In theory, Exum is the perfect free agent signing.

Ime Udoka won’t play negative defenders? No worries. Exum has always been a good defender.

The Rockets need some ball-handling? Exum was drafted as a point guard. In 2020-21, Cleveland gave him 52% of his minutes at the 3, but most recently, the Mavericks moved him back to the 1.

Shooting? How about 49.1% from deep in 2023-24 and 43.4% in 2024-25? Name an ability that isn’t “be a star”, and Exum has it. This year..

Wait, Exum hasn’t played this year.

He barely played last year. Exum may retire before he has a chance to suit up for the Rockets (again, technically). That said, if he is ready to suit up in 2026-27, the Rockets should give him a chance on a veteran’s minimum.

Svi Mykhailiuk, G/F

On the subject of Udoka and negative defenders…

It may be time to loosen up. One negative-ish defender is not going to sink the team’s entire gameplan. Moreover, if that single negative defender is a knockdown movement shooter from three-point range, it could unlock a lot of options in the offensive gameplan.

If that matters to Ime Udoka in the slightest.

Mykhailiuk isn’t known for locking up opponents, but he is 6’7″. Playing him at the 2 allows Udoka to preserve his highly valued positional size advantage, and with some coaching in that department, who knows? Mykhailiuk could at least meet Houston’s (high) minimum defensive standard.

Matisse Thybulle, G/F

That said, if Udoka insists…

Thybulle is one of the best defenders in basketball.

Reputation has a way of outpacing reality. You may be thinking, “another non-shooter?” Think again. Thybulle is hitting 41.8% of his threes over his last four seasons.

Granted, in those four seasons, he’s played about a season’s worth of games. That’s the issue with Thybulle. His body consistently fails him.

That’s why he might be available at a veteran’s minimum. The Rockets don’t have the money for a can’t-miss signing. If they plan on making roster additions this summer, they’re going to be players who are available for a reason. If they can get a healthy year out of Thybulle, he could be one of the best contracts in the NBA.

Ariel Hukporti, C

This one may be a bit out of left field. If you’re thinking “another big?”, there’s a bit more merit in your thought process this time.

That said, Udoka clearly likes 5s. He wants to be able to play double big lineups, and he likes having a variety of bigs. Sure, the Rockets could cycle through veterans, but why not try to target Alperen Sengun’s long-term backup?

Hukporti’s 11.8% Offensive Rebounding % would rank 11th in the NBA if he’d played enough to qualify. He’s a stout rim protector. Hukporti hasn’t shown much on the offensive end, but he does the stuff the Rockets seem to want in a backup big.

Three cheers for signing him this summer?

SB Nation Reacts results: Most likely playoff outcome for the Houston Rockets

2026-03-07T08:52:14-05:00

Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NBA. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Houston Rockets fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

Oh ye of little faith.

Actually, you’re just realistic. Who can blame you for that? It’s best to remain grounded somewhere in the realm of reality. What’s what? What are we talking about?

Well, the results are in. SB Nation asked you how the Houston Rockets’ season would end. A stout 55% of you said that the team would flame out in the Conference Semifinals.

Rockets predicted to win one series

Frankly, this feels right on the money.

The Rockets currently sit fourth in the Western Conference. If the season ended today, they’d play the Nuggets. The Rockets’ 5.2 Net Rating comfortably edges Denver’s 4.4 mark. Nikola Jokic will give the Nuggets an advantage in any series, but for all their struggles, the Rockets have been the better team this year.

After that, they’d presumably play the Thunder. Article over.

Jokes aside, Houston can easily chase down the third seed heading into the postseason. That would likely pit them against the Spurs in the next round. San Antonio is a tough matchup for the Rockets. Victor Wembanyama’s ability to shut down the paint will mitigate a team that relies on two non-shooters like Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson.

Nothing is set in stone. Injuries happen. The Rockets could get hot at the right time. The Rockets still have a (very) outside chance of winning the NBA title this year:

But you shouldn’t bet on it.

On that note, if you do want to bet on your Houston Rockets, head on over to FanDuel, the official sportsbook partner of SB Nation.

Ime Udoka is overworking Rockets Amen Thompson

2026-03-03T20:24:54-05:00

Every NBA player has a role. That’s not to say that every NBA player has the right role.

I worked at a law firm for five years. For the first year, I worked in the file room. I did well there because it would definitely be possible to train a primate to do the job.

Eventually, I was promoted to a desk job. I struggled mightily. It was far more complex. My manager hated me.

In time, it became clear that my biggest strength was talking to the clients. I became, in a sense, the face of the company. I was responsible for client intake – I was the first person you met. Perhaps the least competent, but people seem to trust me. I was also responsible for calling clients to give them bad news.

The point? I found my role. I went from a simple role to a role I couldn’t handle, into an ideal role.

Amen Thompson needs the same transformation with the Houston Rockets.

Rockets overburden young wing

In 2024-25, Thompson had a 17.5% Usage Rate. This year, he’s up to 20.2%.

He has a 22.0% frequency as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, up from 15.8%. If you follow this team, you know what’s going on. Thompson was a wing last year, and this year, he’s the starting point guard.

That’s not all. It’s more difficult to quantify a defensive role change, but Thompson’s responsibilities have been qualitatively different in 2025-26. He is frequently tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player. Last season, that was typically Dillon Brooks’ job.

It’s all resulted in a puzzling season for Thompson. His basic counting stats are up across the board, but his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) has slipped from 4.1 to 1.8. For reference, that’s the difference between ranking between (coincidentally) Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant this year, compared to his real place tied with Santi Aldama and Nic Claxton.

Now, it has potentially resulted in an injury.

Rockets may be without Thompson for a spell

Granted, the severity of his injury as of this writing is unknown.

More broadly, this could be a false correlation. Players get injured regardless of their workload. Yet, it’s hard to shake the feeling that Thompson is biting off more than he can chew.

His 36.9 minutes per game rank second in the league behind Tyrese Maxey. Thompson is being asked to do more than he’s ever done and play more in the process.

Last year, he earned his first (of many) All-Defense selections. He joined Dyson Daniels, Luguentz Dort, Draymond Green, and Evan Mobley. Where do Thompson’s All-Defense peers land in usage this year?

2024-25 All-Defensive Usage Rates in 2025-26

Evan Mobley (22.1%)

Amen Thompson (20.2%)

Draymond Green (16.9%)

Dyson Daniels (16.0%)

Luguentz Dort (14.1%(

So, Thompson is behind Mobley. Yet, in all likelihood, he isn’t really behind Mobley.

Thompson gets 73.4 touches per game to Mobley’s 66.5. Mobley does sometimes create for Cleveland, but he’s more of a play finisher, which factors into Basketball Reference’s measure of Usage. Simply put, Thompson is the only All-Defensive selection from 2024-25 operating as a primary ball-handler in 2025-26.

Given that the second All-Defensive squad was comprised of Toumani Camara, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jalen Williams, and Ivica Zubac, Thompson likely is the most or second-most (Williams) used offensive player between each squad. If Ime Udoka wants Thompson to continue making All-Defensive First Team appearances, he may need to lighten Thompson’s offensive load.

There seems to be a false dichotomy when we talk about “on” vs. “off” ball NBA players. To suggest that Houston should move Thompson to an “off-ball role” is an oversimplification. It would be more accurate to say that the Rockets should simply reduce his time on-ball.

That could help them find his perfect role.

Is Reed Sheppard the next Steph Curry?

2026-02-28T08:57:48-05:00

In some NBA circles, Reed Sheppard has a nickname.

Rule of thumb: If Basketball Reference won’t print it, neither will The Dream Shake. Hmmm. How about Triple Espresso Curry? Why not I Ran Into A Jerk From High School, He Seemed Really Excited To See Me Even Though We Were Never Friends Curry?

To quote the ever-poignant Pusha T (which in itself is a hint), if you know, you know. The more significant point, of course, is that Sheppard has garnered comparisons to Curry.

Are they legitimate?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a historic shooter

Warning: This attempt at statistical comparison is riddled with flaws.

Firstly, it’d have been better to compare Curry’s sophomore stats. Unfortunately, NBA.com’s tracking data doesn’t go back that far. The furthest back we could get was 2013-14. By then, Curry was a fringe MVP candidate, even if not the direct descendant of Khrysos that Rockets fans have grown to loathe.

Secondly, the league has changed dramatically in the last decade-and-change. Curry is the best shooter of all time, but it’s fair to say that the NBA did not know how to defend him when his style of play was beginning to crystallize. Ironically, the Rockets were instrumental in introducing some coverages that kind of, sort of mitigated his impact for stretches. It’s fair to assume Sheppard is seeing those coverages more regularly.

Lastly, Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time. It stands to reason that he’s unlikely to be number two by the time Sheppard retires. This is the highest bar.

So, the fact that Sheppard comes close to meeting it is very encouraging.

On catch-and-shoot threes, Curry shot 45.8% on 2.6 attempts per game in 2013-14. Sheppard is hitting 40.7% of his 4.4 threes per game. On pull-up threes, Curry hit 40.3% of his 4.4 attempts, while Sheppard is hitting 38.1% of his 2.0 per game.

On face value, perhaps that’s not as comparable as you’d like. The pull-up shooting is the secret sauce. That’s the skill that allowed Curry to warp the geometry of the basketball court. It’s what separates him from the Klay Thompsons and Ray Allens of the world.

Two counterpoints. First, 38.1% is a very strong percentage on pull-up triples. For context, Anthony Edwards is hitting 34.0% of his 6.0 attempts per game. There’s a simple conclusion here: Sheppard should shoot more pull-up threes. He’s got considerable breathing room for his accuracy to decline and remain one of the most effective pull-up three-point shooters in the NBA. As of now, he shoots a higher percentage than anyone in the top-10 in volume besides Ty Jerome and – you guessed it – Steph Curry.

Second, Sheppard doesn’t have to be a Curry facsimile to be one of the most impactful shooters in the NBA. Let it be said that Curry never played with a big man with Alperen Sengun’s combination of interior gravity and passing acumen. Given the potential synergy there, Sheppard’s catch-and-shoot chops could mean more for the Rockets than Curry’s meant for the Warriors.

Once again, volume is a variable. This is a neat stat that shows how much the league has changed. In 2013-14, Curry shot 8.1 threes per 75 possessions. That ranked third in the league behind Miro Telotovic (a beautiful blast from the past, what a fun player) and Gerald Green* (you’re a Rockets fan, so you know what that’s about).

*Green is the only celebrity I ever played against in NBA 2K. Random Rec. The dude played exactly like his NBA self. Finished 4/10 from three, 4/10 from the field. Pretty sure he missed 5 straight before hitting three impossible triples in a row. Surreal.

Sheppard shoots 9.7 threes per 75 possessions. That’s 12th in the league. Regardless of shot type, he needs to shoot more three-pointers. That’s true on a per-possession basis, but it’s more broadly true in general, which is a roundabout way of saying Ime Udoka needs to give him more minutes.

Could that unlock his inner Curry-ness?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a star

For Udoka to play Sheppard more, Sheppard needs to improve on defense.

He’s been doing that lately. Sheppard is gambling less. All of the hand-wringing about his efforts on that end may have been no more than a reaction to watching a rookie/sophomore on a contending NBA team.

He won’t be Curry. Nobody will. That’s fine. If Sheppard can be, say, 80% of a Steph Curry offensively plus elite defensive playmaking (even if exploitable in certain matchups), that feels like a borderline franchise player. If he can hit 90%, that’s a certified franchise stud.

If you disagree, you might be on drugs.

A way-too-early relitigation of Rockets Kevin Durant trade

2026-02-25T15:36:46-05:00

It’s been said that hindsight is 20/20.

Is it?

It likely depends on how far removed you are from what you’re trying to see. The past is a vacuous concept. Anything you do is in the past a milesecond later. Perhaps it’s most accurate to say that hindsight will eventually be 20/20.

Is it time to relitigate the Kevin Durant trade yet?

Probably not. We won’t have a comprehensive picture of the decision for another couple of years. That said, we’re over halfway through the first season of The Durant Experience. We can introduce the topic.

So, let’s.

Rockets didn’t spare much for Durant

It would not be fair to look at Jalen Green’s stats.

(Proceeds to take just a little peek at Jalen Green’s stats).

The former Rockets guard has played 11 games in the Valley. He’s averaging 24.8 points per 75 possessions, which is good, with a 46.1 True Shooting % (TS%), which is…

Unspeakably awful? Impervious to hyperbole?

Bad. It’s very bad.

Yet, it seems likely that injuries have hampered Green. He looks compromised. That’s unfortunate, but it’s only rational to observe that this looks like a wasted season for a 24-year-old with no time to waste.

Would he have gotten hurt in Houston? Now you’re invoking The Butterfly Effect. It’s too speculative, even if watching Green in Houston often felt like being in an episode of Punk’d.

(Ashton Kutcher).

Dillon Brooks is having a career year. He’s averaging 20.9 points per game. The Rockets miss Brooks. His point-of-attack defense would be useful this year. Put a pin in that.

Khaman Maluach is averaging 1.8 points and 1.6 rebounds per game. That said, there’s no reason to assume Houston would have drafted Maluach. They could have picked Cedric “I’m not a” Coward, who’s been sensational for the Grizzlies, and was selected one spot later.

Again, we’re getting too hypothetical. Other than Coward, there’s nobody left on the board you’d look at and even entertain over having Kevin Durant, besides Derek Queen, who distinctly could not play alongside Alperen Sengun. For argument’s sake, let’s say Houston gave up Green, Brooks, and the median player picked between 10th and, say, 20th in a wide-open 2025 NBA Draft for Kevin Durant.

Mistake?

Rockets’ Durant trade is aging…decently?

I’ll say this: I’d rather have Coward and Brooks than Durant right now.

Call it a hot take. Coward is young and very much a player the Rockets’ young core could conceptually use. The Rockets could gradually phase Green out as they phased Coward in. They’d have less intense expectations and a clearer future outlook.

Now, they’re downright confusing. Is this team operating on Durant’s time, or the young guns? We’ve been over this ad nauseam, but if Houston hadn’t made the Durant trade, we wouldn’t have to.

That said…

If we assume Houston doesn’t draft Coward, this was still (in my opinion) the right decision. A flailing Green, good veteran, and some kind of Noa Essengue or Joan Beringer (both intriguing young players, to be clear) remains an excellent price for Kevin Durant.

Some fans will evaluate strictly through the lens of result. It seems more reasonable to factor process into your analysis. The Rockets made this deal under the pretense that it gave them a fighting chance of winning an NBA title in 2025-26. Fred VanVleet’s injury dashed those dreams.

If you’re still a Green truther…I don’t know what to tell you. It would be generous to say that he’s on track to be Zach LaVine. If you’re unfamiliar with LaVine, he’s the guy who averages 20 points per game every year and, somehow, is untradeable at the deadline because of how little impact he has on his team’s success.

That’s not to say Green can’t succeed. Any number larger than zero is not zero. There’s a non-zero chance he wins an MVP award in his career, but it’s likely less than one percent. The more likely result is that the centerpiece of the Durant deal is a player the Rockets won’t miss.

They had lots of time to draw that conclusion.

The case for the Rockets not doing anything drastic

2026-02-24T12:39:12-05:00

HOUSTON, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Alperen Sengun #28 and Kevin Durant #7 of the Houston Rockets looks on during the game against the Utah Jazz on February 23, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

There are 30 teams in the National Basketball Association.

(How’s that for insight?)

Some have it easier than others. That’s always been the case. The NBA practically has a caste system. Moving up a rung requires more maneuvering than Viola disguising himself as Cesario in Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night.

Take the Washington Wizards. They are cosmically stinky. The best player in the franchise’s history is Wes Unseld, who, with all due respect, played in an era when an NBA head coach quite literally lit stogies during games.

That was Red Auerbach, the head coach of a Celtics team that always gets to be good for no apparent reason. At least the Lakers play in Los Angeles. There’s at least a causal explanation for their never-yielding goodness.

Then, there’s the Houston Rockets.

Middle-upper class. Seldom among the best teams in the league. Rarely in the duldrums. This iteration of the team is no exception.

There are teams you’d readily trade places with. Please do not deny it. If the Spurs offered to trade rosters and assets, you would trade rosters and assets. Lest we even name The Team Who Shall Not Be Named.

Yet, as a Rockets fan, complaints will find deaf ears with over half of the league’s fanbases. They are objectively in a good spot.

Maybe they shouldn’t do anything about it.

Rockets don’t need to rush decisions

This may seem like a 180. Consider it a publicly available internal dialogue of a confused fan.

Antetokounmpo is tempting. The logic is simple. This is the best player that is likely to be available while the Rockets have assets. Get him.

If they do, you won’t find complaints from me. More broadly, the Rockets’ roster is flawed, perhaps irredeemably. We should all be cozying up to the reality that Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson are not a natural fit. Neither is a natural fit with Antetokounmpo, for the same reasons, but the logic in acquiring him would be that the Rockets are already this good with a roster flaw, so imagine how much better they’d be with an upgrade.

Yet…you’re still trading the farm without alleviating your two non-shooter problem. You’re solving your no franchise player problem, but creating a new no more assets problem. From a utility perspective, the math does not, as the kids say, math.

Questions emerge. Are we 100% sure you need a franchise player in what’s been dubbed in some circles as “the weakest link era”? No, but I land around 90%. Depth matters more than before, but it hasn’t usurped top-end talent as a priority. The best teams in the league have the best players in the league, and depth. You still need an elite player; it’s just that now, it seems more optimal to have 5 good players behind them rather than 2 elite ones.

(Unless you’re The Team Who Shall Not Be Named. Then, you’ve got Michael Jordan’s successor flanked by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, and tremendous depth).

Are we 100% sure the Rockets don’t have a franchise player? No. I land around 85%.

It’s such a high bar. If it’s going to be Sengun, he needs to shoot about 10% better between zero-and-three feet if he’s not going to consistently shoot threes. If it’s going to be Thompson, he needs to shoot 10-15% better from deep if he’s going to functionally be a guard (and if he’s not going to be a guard, he’s not going to be a franchise player).

Reed Sheppard is an unknown variable in that sense. He can’t grow, so his three-point gravity has to be so immense as to offset his height. He’ll need to improve his handle. There’s no discernible statistical reason why he can’t be the guy, but his flaw may prove the most debilitating of the group.

Are we 100% sure the franchise player has to be currently on the roster, or Giannis Antetokounmpo?

…Now, we’ve arrived at the question.

If the Rockets think they’ll have to trade for “their guy”, they may want to consider haste. These players are not getting any younger. They’re approaching their mid-20s, and the “young player” luster will wear off quickly. That doesn’t mean they must move for Antetokounmpo, but it does mean they’ll basically have to pull the trigger on the next guy (Ant? Can Tyrese Maxey sustain his current offensive production in a winning environment, and would that make him a top-10ish player?) to hit the market.

Could they still draft that guy? The Rockets have some premium picks coming up. Between the Suns and the Nets, they’re likely to pick in the 2027 lottery. The class is seen as weak: But so was the class that yielded Antetokounmpo.

(And Nikola Jokic, by the way).

So many considerations. So much uncertainty. Here’s where it pays to be an optimist. The Rockets are still young. They still have a lot of picks. The glass is half full.

Why rush to alter a good situation? Within the next couple of years, this organization must clarify its direction. That doesn’t mean it’s pressing enough to rush into anything now. If the Rockets do decide to get Antetokounmpo, it will be a defensible decision, but perhaps the best thing to do is sit back, see what they yield with their next crop of draft picks, and make a decision from there.

The right choice could improve their class standing.

Rockets are the victims of a 30-year curse

2026-02-22T14:39:01-05:00

It’s hard to watch.

Dear God, it’s hard to watch. This season has been an abject disaster.

Not from a rational point of view. It’s been a disappointment by any measure. The Houston Rockets wanted to be better this year. They were supposed to be title contenders. Deep, structural roster flaws have been exposed. The trade machine’s server is being overloaded in Southeast Texas (and, to be honest, from one refurbished MacBook Air in Eastern Canada).

But it’s not truly a disaster. The Rockets are likely to have homecourt advantage in the first round of a season where their starting point guard hasn’t played a game. They have a surplus of young players and future first-round picks. It’s only been disastrous from the perspective of how much fans expected to enjoy the year, relative to how much they have. Here’s the good news:

It’s not their fault.

The 2025-26 season has been cursed. The working theory is that the team made a deal with the Devil ahead of the 1993-94 season. The Prince of Darkness agreed to persuade Michael Jordan to play baseball. In exchange, the Rockets would be wildly disappointing once per decade from the moment Jordan returned.

I’m not crazy, you’re crazy.

Rockets suffer from a generational curse

Let’s go back to 1995-96.

I wasn’t even ten yet, so I can’t offer a firsthand account. I can tell you that Houston switched from the iconic ketchup-and-mustard jerseys that they’d thrived in for so long to the navy pinstripe duds that I loved as a child and retroactively identify as a downgrade.

Although only Bret “The Hitman” Hart tickles my nostalgia bone as strongly as that little cartoon Rocket.

Anyway, the rest is history. The Rockets were still good in 1995-96. It’s hard to point to any one player’s decline and explain their shortcomings. They were, seemingly, just marginally worse than before. They could not get past the (soon-to-be revived) Seattle Supersonics in the second round, and the dynasty that never was died.

The Rockets would inexplicably acquire Charles Barkley, get worse, get old, rebuild, draft Steve Francis, get even worse, (deep breath), draft Yao Ming, trade for Tracy McGrady, and start to get better.

The 2004-05 season was one for the books. Sure, the Rockets lost in the first round. Nobody cared. They were built around a 24-year-old Ming and a 25-year-old McGrady (which, in NBA terms, was younger at a time when Tim Duncan played in college for four years). The future was bright.

And then…

The Devil came collecting. It had been ten years since 1995-96. Ming and McGrady would both miss time with injuries, establishing a motif for their time together in Houston. The Rockets won 34 games.

They’d win 50+ games for the next three seasons. The Devil was indifferent. The curse was lifted. Injuries would eventually limit their star duo’s upside, leaving the Rockets to rebuild again. They toiled in mediocrity for a few years until James Harden entered the picture. He instantly established himself as a franchise-caliber talent. In 2014-15, he and Dwight Howard would lead the Rockets to the Western Conference Finals.

And then…

It was difficult to account for. The Rockets retained most of their key players. Ty Lawson was the can’t-miss acquisition that missed, but even if it was a case of subtraction-by-addition, he was quickly out of the rotation. As it was in ’96, the Rockets were kind of just… worse.

Defenses had figured them out. Stop Harden, and you stop everyone. Howard wasn’t getting post touches, rightfully or not. Houston didn’t have a way to generate offense if Harden wasn’t cooking.

That’s why they got Chris Paul. It’s why they made another Conference Finals trip in 2017-18, only this time, it actually felt like they might win. We all know what happened and how it got us to where we are now.

The last two seasons were fun. The post-Harden tank was over. A .500 season in 2023-24 was acceptable to everyone. A first-round exit after a 52-win season last year was defensible. The team was young.

This year? Nobody is satisfied. Blame Ime Udoka’s offensive ingenuity. Blame Reed Sheppard’s size. Blame Amen Thompson’s broken jumper, or Alperen Sengun’s broken touch. Blame whoever you like:

I’ll blame the Devil.

Rockets could reach an inflection point this Summer

2026-02-21T13:00:50-05:00

So, yeah.

Uhh…

This is awkward.

A burner. In a group chat full of “stan” accounts. Speaking poorly of his teammates.

What?

Well, it’s a testament to your poor judgment if you expect emotional maturity from NBA superstars. This man has been exalted for 20 years. Shame is likely less of a variable in his life than it is in yours or mine.

That said, it is imperative (potentially for legal reasons, and if not certainly for journalistic integrity) to note that we do not know if it was Durant.

It does feel like it was Durant, though, doesn’t it?

He had every opportunity to deny it. Deflection without denial is suspect at best. If you suspect your partner of cheating, and when confronted, they tell you, “I’m not here to talk about all that cheating nonsense”…

I have got bad news for you.

Still, speculation is speculative in nature. Maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t. Here’s the rub:

The Rockets may have to make a choice this summer anyway.

Rockets might reach an inflection point

Theoretically, there are three options:

Do nothing.
Win-now moves
Future-focused moves

If the Rockets win a playoff series, option 1 will likely appeal. The theory that re-inserting Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams into the equation will yield sufficient improvement will carry some weight.

What if they don’t?

I just spilled ample ink on how important Fred VanVleet is. So much as I stand by that, it would be a bit hard to accept that a first-round exit team would be vaulted into serious title contention by his low assist-to-turnover ratio. If the Rockets can’t win one playoff series, it’s hard decision time.

In essence, that means either Antetokounmpo season, or sending Durant to the Hornets team he (allegedly) so openly admires.

Most Rockets fans will prefer the latter route. It’s understandable. There is a prevalent parasocial attachment to the “young core.” It’s human.

The fact that I’m impervious to it may be a subject for therapy.

Here’s a harsh reality check: That young core is getting older. Life comes at you fast. Statistically speaking, NBA players tend to level off, improvement-wise, around year 5, or age 25. Here’s a whole academic study if you need something*

*I only read the abstract, but the information is there.

Alperen Sengun is 23, and over halfway to 24. Amen Thompson is the same age. By now, the Rockets’ front office should at least be considering the possibility that Sengun just won’t ever be as efficient around the rim as his best-case comparisons are. They have to be entertaining the idea that Thompson will never have a workable jump shot.

Ergo, they have to be considering the possibility that they didn’t draft “the guy”.

None of which is to say this choice is easy. This team is still talented. Houston could trade Durant for rotational guys and a first-round pick. They could forge ahead as a perennial first or second-round exit, hoping to strike gold in the draft. It’s legitimately not a bad plan.

Here’s the only strong conclusion I’m looking to draw here: If the Rockets don’t win a playoff series, Option 1 should not be attractive to them. It’s a waste of everyone’s time. If they can’t get that far in 2025-26, something substantive should change this summer.

Even if it makes for some awkward conversations.

The Rockets are losing the math game

2026-02-19T16:08:26-05:00

The relationship between NBA basketball and math has long been tenuous.

You’ve seen the debates. The stat nerd vs the hooper. Metrics vs the eye test. It’s as false a dichotomy as one could imagine. To understand basketball, you need both. That will always be the case.

Anyway, the 2025-26 Houston Rockets need a math tutor. Their calculations are off. They’re losing the math game:

And the numbers aren’t lying.

Rockets need to improve efficiency

If you’re reading this, you surely know that the Rockets don’t shoot many threes. In fact, their 34.0% three-point frequency ranks dead last in the NBA.

They hit a high percentage of those triples. Houston’s 37.0% three-point shooting ranks sixth. That amounts to 11.3 made threes per game, which lands 24th in the NBA.

That would be fine – if the Rockets hit a high percentage of their twos. This team wasn’t built to overwhelm opponents with three-point shooting. They were built to dominate the offensive glass and win the math game with extra possessions.

They’re still dominating the glass. Houston’s 39.9% Offensive Rebounding Percentage is first in the league by a long shot. It’s just a somewhat moot point when they’re hitting 52.3% of their two-point field goal attempts.

That’s second-last in the NBA.

That’s right. Only the Pacers hit a lower percentage of their twos. This is a gap year for the Pacers. Despite the significance of Fred VanVleet’s absence, the same cannot be said for the Rockets.

So let’s break out the calculators. What can the Rockets do?

The Rockets must play to their strengths

They shouldn’t be thinking about increasing their three-point volume too dramatically.

They simply do not have the personnel. Sure, Ime Udoka ought to have a little more faith in Reed Sheppard. He could bolster the three-point volume a bit, but he’s only one NBA sophomore. That won’t meaningfully move the needle.

Above all else, the Rockets need to hit a higher percentage of their twos.

The elephant in the room: Alperen Sengun needs to be more efficient. He just does. He’s hitting 69.7% of his shots between zero-and-three feet. That’s a career high, but it’s still not high enough.

For context, Giannis Antetokounmpo hits 81.1% of his field goals from the same area. Nikola Jokic hits 78.6% of his bunnies.

Am I being unfair by comparing Sengun to the best players in the NBA? OK. Domantas Sabonis hits 69.9% of his attempts from the same range. Newsflash:

The Rockets need Alperen Sengun to be better than Domantas Sabonis.

Holding the young star to a high standard should not be frowned upon. Sengun doesn’t offer much from three-point range, so to be a star playmaker, he needs to make hay at the rim. That’s what the math dictates.

Otherwise, Amen Thompson is hitting 75.0% of his shots between zero-and-three. That’s consistent with last year (75.8%), but his volume is significantly down (36.1% from 42.0%). That’s likely symptomatic of his on-ball work. When Thompson is setting up in the halfcourt, it’s easier for defenses to force him into the midrange. Taking him back off the ball and putting him in a position to cut and attack closeouts could get him back at the rim more often.

That’s about it, as far as my solutions go. I’m no math wizard. Let it be said that the Rockets don’t need to play brutal, D’Antoni-style stat-ball. They do need to find a way to improve on their dreadful two-point efficiency if they’re going to be a low-volume three-point shooting club:

Otherwise, the numbers just aren’t in their favor.