By The Numbers | The Dream Shake

Is Reed Sheppard the next Steph Curry?

2026-02-28T08:57:48-05:00

In some NBA circles, Reed Sheppard has a nickname.

Rule of thumb: If Basketball Reference won’t print it, neither will The Dream Shake. Hmmm. How about Triple Espresso Curry? Why not I Ran Into A Jerk From High School, He Seemed Really Excited To See Me Even Though We Were Never Friends Curry?

To quote the ever-poignant Pusha T (which in itself is a hint), if you know, you know. The more significant point, of course, is that Sheppard has garnered comparisons to Curry.

Are they legitimate?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a historic shooter

Warning: This attempt at statistical comparison is riddled with flaws.

Firstly, it’d have been better to compare Curry’s sophomore stats. Unfortunately, NBA.com’s tracking data doesn’t go back that far. The furthest back we could get was 2013-14. By then, Curry was a fringe MVP candidate, even if not the direct descendant of Khrysos that Rockets fans have grown to loathe.

Secondly, the league has changed dramatically in the last decade-and-change. Curry is the best shooter of all time, but it’s fair to say that the NBA did not know how to defend him when his style of play was beginning to crystallize. Ironically, the Rockets were instrumental in introducing some coverages that kind of, sort of mitigated his impact for stretches. It’s fair to assume Sheppard is seeing those coverages more regularly.

Lastly, Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time. It stands to reason that he’s unlikely to be number two by the time Sheppard retires. This is the highest bar.

So, the fact that Sheppard comes close to meeting it is very encouraging.

On catch-and-shoot threes, Curry shot 45.8% on 2.6 attempts per game in 2013-14. Sheppard is hitting 40.7% of his 4.4 threes per game. On pull-up threes, Curry hit 40.3% of his 4.4 attempts, while Sheppard is hitting 38.1% of his 2.0 per game.

On face value, perhaps that’s not as comparable as you’d like. The pull-up shooting is the secret sauce. That’s the skill that allowed Curry to warp the geometry of the basketball court. It’s what separates him from the Klay Thompsons and Ray Allens of the world.

Two counterpoints. First, 38.1% is a very strong percentage on pull-up triples. For context, Anthony Edwards is hitting 34.0% of his 6.0 attempts per game. There’s a simple conclusion here: Sheppard should shoot more pull-up threes. He’s got considerable breathing room for his accuracy to decline and remain one of the most effective pull-up three-point shooters in the NBA. As of now, he shoots a higher percentage than anyone in the top-10 in volume besides Ty Jerome and – you guessed it – Steph Curry.

Second, Sheppard doesn’t have to be a Curry facsimile to be one of the most impactful shooters in the NBA. Let it be said that Curry never played with a big man with Alperen Sengun’s combination of interior gravity and passing acumen. Given the potential synergy there, Sheppard’s catch-and-shoot chops could mean more for the Rockets than Curry’s meant for the Warriors.

Once again, volume is a variable. This is a neat stat that shows how much the league has changed. In 2013-14, Curry shot 8.1 threes per 75 possessions. That ranked third in the league behind Miro Telotovic (a beautiful blast from the past, what a fun player) and Gerald Green* (you’re a Rockets fan, so you know what that’s about).

*Green is the only celebrity I ever played against in NBA 2K. Random Rec. The dude played exactly like his NBA self. Finished 4/10 from three, 4/10 from the field. Pretty sure he missed 5 straight before hitting three impossible triples in a row. Surreal.

Sheppard shoots 9.7 threes per 75 possessions. That’s 12th in the league. Regardless of shot type, he needs to shoot more three-pointers. That’s true on a per-possession basis, but it’s more broadly true in general, which is a roundabout way of saying Ime Udoka needs to give him more minutes.

Could that unlock his inner Curry-ness?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a star

For Udoka to play Sheppard more, Sheppard needs to improve on defense.

He’s been doing that lately. Sheppard is gambling less. All of the hand-wringing about his efforts on that end may have been no more than a reaction to watching a rookie/sophomore on a contending NBA team.

He won’t be Curry. Nobody will. That’s fine. If Sheppard can be, say, 80% of a Steph Curry offensively plus elite defensive playmaking (even if exploitable in certain matchups), that feels like a borderline franchise player. If he can hit 90%, that’s a certified franchise stud.

If you disagree, you might be on drugs.

The Rockets are losing the math game

2026-02-19T16:08:26-05:00

The relationship between NBA basketball and math has long been tenuous.

You’ve seen the debates. The stat nerd vs the hooper. Metrics vs the eye test. It’s as false a dichotomy as one could imagine. To understand basketball, you need both. That will always be the case.

Anyway, the 2025-26 Houston Rockets need a math tutor. Their calculations are off. They’re losing the math game:

And the numbers aren’t lying.

Rockets need to improve efficiency

If you’re reading this, you surely know that the Rockets don’t shoot many threes. In fact, their 34.0% three-point frequency ranks dead last in the NBA.

They hit a high percentage of those triples. Houston’s 37.0% three-point shooting ranks sixth. That amounts to 11.3 made threes per game, which lands 24th in the NBA.

That would be fine – if the Rockets hit a high percentage of their twos. This team wasn’t built to overwhelm opponents with three-point shooting. They were built to dominate the offensive glass and win the math game with extra possessions.

They’re still dominating the glass. Houston’s 39.9% Offensive Rebounding Percentage is first in the league by a long shot. It’s just a somewhat moot point when they’re hitting 52.3% of their two-point field goal attempts.

That’s second-last in the NBA.

That’s right. Only the Pacers hit a lower percentage of their twos. This is a gap year for the Pacers. Despite the significance of Fred VanVleet’s absence, the same cannot be said for the Rockets.

So let’s break out the calculators. What can the Rockets do?

The Rockets must play to their strengths

They shouldn’t be thinking about increasing their three-point volume too dramatically.

They simply do not have the personnel. Sure, Ime Udoka ought to have a little more faith in Reed Sheppard. He could bolster the three-point volume a bit, but he’s only one NBA sophomore. That won’t meaningfully move the needle.

Above all else, the Rockets need to hit a higher percentage of their twos.

The elephant in the room: Alperen Sengun needs to be more efficient. He just does. He’s hitting 69.7% of his shots between zero-and-three feet. That’s a career high, but it’s still not high enough.

For context, Giannis Antetokounmpo hits 81.1% of his field goals from the same area. Nikola Jokic hits 78.6% of his bunnies.

Am I being unfair by comparing Sengun to the best players in the NBA? OK. Domantas Sabonis hits 69.9% of his attempts from the same range. Newsflash:

The Rockets need Alperen Sengun to be better than Domantas Sabonis.

Holding the young star to a high standard should not be frowned upon. Sengun doesn’t offer much from three-point range, so to be a star playmaker, he needs to make hay at the rim. That’s what the math dictates.

Otherwise, Amen Thompson is hitting 75.0% of his shots between zero-and-three. That’s consistent with last year (75.8%), but his volume is significantly down (36.1% from 42.0%). That’s likely symptomatic of his on-ball work. When Thompson is setting up in the halfcourt, it’s easier for defenses to force him into the midrange. Taking him back off the ball and putting him in a position to cut and attack closeouts could get him back at the rim more often.

That’s about it, as far as my solutions go. I’m no math wizard. Let it be said that the Rockets don’t need to play brutal, D’Antoni-style stat-ball. They do need to find a way to improve on their dreadful two-point efficiency if they’re going to be a low-volume three-point shooting club:

Otherwise, the numbers just aren’t in their favor.

Why can’t the Rockets make open shots?

2026-01-10T20:56:33-05:00

The Houston Rockets have been one of the league’s top-ranked offenses all season. Quite the surprise for an Ime Udoka-led group, which is generally carried by defensive execution.

Houston’s offensive philosophy is largely predicated on dominating the glass and getting extra bites at the apple.

Simple but effective. The more extra possessions, the more scoring opportunities.

In spite of the Rockets’ top three offensive rating, they could be much better on that end.

It all starts with making shots. Especially the open ones. Those are the easy ones.

At least they’re supposed to be. But not for the Rockets this season.

They rank 15th in 3-point percentage when “open”, shooting 34.4 percent.

By definition, the league defines being open when the closest defender is 4-6 feet away.

Wide open is when the nearest defender is 6+ feet away.

That’s an important distinction, especially when considering the individual player stats.

For example, Jabari Smith Jr., who ranks fourth in Houston’s pecking order in terms of shots per game, is usually left open by defenses, as they key in on Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun.

However, he shoots worse when “open”. In fact, he’s hitting just 33 percent of his threes with 4-6 feet of space. Which comprises 23.8 percent of his long-range attempts.

And 37.9 percent on twos when the same distance between he and the nearest defender.

Ditto for Reed Sheppard, who is making just 34.2 percent of his treys when left open, which is also 21.7 percent of his 3-point attempts. Although his percentages shoot up when factoring in two-pointers, at a 60 percent clip

Same for Tari Eason, who shoots 32.3 percent from deep when left open, which occupies 18 percent of his long-range attempts. And 33.3 percent on twos.

By comparison, Kevin Durant shoots 39.7 percent from deep when left open and 61.2 percent on twos.

Josh Okogie shoots 66.7 percent from three when open.

It may seem like nitpicking or splitting hairs to harbor on this, but it’s noteworthy, when considering that these are open shots.

Role players have to be able to hit these. Especially on a roster with Kevin Durant at the top of the scouting report as the main defensive draw.

The Rockets don’t need to be so isolated

2025-12-23T14:18:29-05:00

It seems like most of the articles I’ve written since I (blissfully) returned to The Dream Shake have been some iteration of “the Rockets have the NBA’s second-best Offensive Rating, but they need to fix their offense.”

Well…

It’s now the fourth-best Offensive Rating (121.0). Still elite territory, but they’re slipping.

This should not come as a shock. Ime Udoka, despite his many positive qualities, has failed to establish a sustainable first-shot offense. The team’s strategy is overly predicated on offensive rebounding, and it’s starting to show. There are plenty of potential fixes. I’ve suggested running a triangle. I’ve advocated for picking up the pace on a situational basis. I stand by those ideas:

But one piece of fruit hangs particularly low.

The Rockets isolate too much

The Rockets are second in the NBA in isolation frequency (10.7%). The 0.87 points per possession (PPP) they score in isolation lands in the 34.5th percentile. Kevin Durant is in the 45.8th percentile in isolation PPP, and Alperen Sengun is in the 40.3rd. Amen Thompson is shockingly in the 74.3rd percentile, but his iso volume is significantly lower.

I’m no basketball genius. It would seem rational to me that, if you don’t do something very well, you shouldn’t do it very often.

They say doing the same thing repeatedly and expecting a new result is the definition of insanity. The actual definition is an “inability to think and behave in ways considered to be normal and rational, especially on account of serious mental illness”, but it’s still an insane thing to do.

I brought this up on my podcast (shameless self-promotion!), and my co-host posited a theory. He says the Rockets play slowly and isolate frequently in large part because it puts them in a better position to get offensive rebounds. He may be right.

Isn’t the planning for failure? If a politician campaigned on a platform with promises about what they’re going to do if their policies fail, would you have confidence in their policies? Shouldn’t the Rockets aim to create and make good first shots, rather than design a system where they don’t care what the shot looks like, because hey, we’ll get the rebound anyway?

Besides, the Rockets’ 37.6% Offensive Rebound Percentage leads the NBA by a huge margin. They could change their system, lose a couple of percentage points, and still have the best mark in the league.

It’s starting to look like it’s of critical importance.

Rockets have not delivered on potential

The Rockets lost to the Kings by one point in overtime last night. It was a cruel case of deja vu. All told, they’ve played 85.0 clutch minutes this year – third in the NBA. The Rockets are 6-8 in those contests.

Any NBA fan knows that when the chips are down, you’ve got to grind out a win. In the clutch, and in the postseason, systems go out the window, and basic isolation-heavy basketball reigns supreme.

So, given that the Rockets are in the 34.5th percentile in isolation PPP, their 6-8 record isn’t a huge surprise.

Still, this isn’t about their clutch-time strategy. It’s about developing a strategy to avoid clutch situations in the first place. Systems may break down in high-leverage situations, but they also carry teams to easy victories:

And the Rockets need a more sophisticated system.

Counterarguments exist. Yes, the actual culprit in the Rockets’ struggles has been defensive regression. Their 113.8 Defensive Rating over the last 10 games ranks 13th in the league. That was integral to last season’s identity.

Sure, the team badly misses Fred VanVleet. Perhaps it really is that simple. The team’s 16.3% Turnover Percentage ranks 28th in the league. Conceptually, the idea behind these Rockets is to control the possession battle. Dominating the offensive glass is a big part of that calculus, but holding onto the ball once they get it is as well. Last season, the Rockets ranked 11th in Turnover % (14.0%). Rostering the least turnover prone high volume passer in the NBA helped that cause.

That’s all true, but none of it negates this team’s need for a better first-shot offense. Perhaps a midseason overhaul isn’t viable. That’s fine. Simply adding some wrinkles to a highly stagnant attack could lead to progress.

For what it’s worth, there’s plenty to salvage here. The Rockets are the sixth seed, but the West is wide open. They’ve got plenty of season left to re-establish themselves as the second-best team in the conference.

It just might help to design an offense that’s hoping its first shot will…you know, go in.

Rockets biggest lineup is coming up short

2025-12-11T09:20:09-05:00

It’s all about finding an edge.

That’s been the Rockets’ modus operandi for a long time. There is seemingly an organizational impetus to identify a statistical area and lean (almost) absurdly hard into it.

Teams are shooting more threes? Cool. We’re going to shoot way more threes. We’re going to shoot so many threes that we’re widely accused of ruining basketball.

What’s that? We’ve missed 26 in a row? Cool:

Let’s shoot another.

That didn’t work? Well, there’s this concept called “tanking”. Unfortunately (for us), the lottery odds have been flattened. You can’t just tank one season and land a generational player anymore, unless you’re the Spurs, who have a direct line to Fortuna. For us regular shmucks, tanking will take multiple seasons. So let’s tank for multiple seasons. We’ll tank so hard that we’re widely accused of ruining basketball.

We love being widely accused of ruining basketball.

The tank is over? Cool! Offensive rebounds. We’re going to do whatever needs to be done to utterly dominate the offensive glass. We’re going to play twin big lineups, even if they went out of fashion with the videocassette recorder.

Not of which is meant to be a critique. All of these strategies have been defensible. The team’s newfound emphasis on offensive rebounding has yielded results:

But the lineup designed to emphasize it the most has been subpar.

Rockets big lineup is a net neutral

Per CleaningTheGlass, Amen Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., Alperen Sengun, and Steven Adams are precisely 0.0 when they share the floor.

Ah, good old 0.0. Not too high, not too low. It’s a sweet spot if your metric is, say, mental well-being. In basketball, it’s what we call “mediocre”.

Specifically, it lands in the 41st percentile. The lineup’s 48.8% Offensive Rebounding percentage predictably lands in the 99th percentile, but its 45.9 Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) lands in the first. The very first percentile.

Thought experiment: Assemble five seven-footers. Maybe one of them is eight-feet tall – there’s your big. None of them has played basketball before (a puzzling decision), but each has NBA-level strength. Spent some time teaching them to rebound and put them on an NBA court. What would happen?

They’d probably land in the 99th percentile in offensive rebounds, and the 1st percentile in eFG%, right?

Maybe not. Here’s the point: Securing extra possessions doesn’t count for much if you can’t put the ball in the basket.

Should the Rockets abandon the twin towers?

Rockets need to keep tinkering

Take Durant and Smith Jr. out of that lineup and add Reed Sheppard and Tari Eason, and the Rockets are +54.6. That’s fantastic, but that lineup has played just 46 possessions compared to the 136 the prior group has played together.

That’s low volume, but it is intriguing. If nothing else, it’s evidence that the double big lineups have a place. By replacing Smith Jr. with Eason, the Rockets are (unfathomably) leaning even further into offensive rebounding, although the 30.0% Offensive Rebounding Percentage doesn’t tell that story. Let’s chalk that up to sample size noise.

Macro lens: The Rockets’ 40.8% Offensive Rebounding Percentage ranks first in the NBA by a landslide. Whether they’re playing double bigs or not, they’ve established their “edge”. However they go about dominating the glass, it’s something they should continue doing.

Perhaps it’s just not viable to run Thompson at the point with the two bigs in the frontcourt. Sengun’s three-point shooting has been a revelation this year, but a Karl-Anthony Towns he ain’t. Sengun is still most effective in the paint, which is the only area Thompson and Adams can do much of anything in.

That seems to mitigate any edge the Rockets gain from that lineup.

Jabari Smith Jr.’s improved three-point shot is a glimmer of hope for poor shooting Rockets

2024-12-26T11:14:31-05:00

It’s no secret that the Houston Rockets shooting has been nothing short of abysmal. In terms of three-point shots attempted, Houston is in the middle of the pack at 15 in attempting 36.3 three-point shots per game. However, looking at all 30 NBA teams, Houston ranks second to last in three-point percentage at 32.5 percent. The only team that shoots worse from three than Houston is the Orlando Magic, who shoot 31.1 percent from deep. Thankfully, despite a slow start to the season, forward Jabari Smith Jr. appears to have found his three-point shooting groove. Over the past 10 games, Jabari is shooting 39.6 percent from three and is shooting 44 percent in the past 17 games after shooting just 25 percent in the first 12 games this season.

Shooting in October

In October, Jabari shot 33.2 percent from three in Houston’s four preseason games. While not terrible, that’s not exactly the shooting you want from someone who has the capability of being the team’s best three-point shooter. Unfortunately, as the regular season started, the shot got worse. In the first five regular season games, Jabari shot 2-for-5 versus Charlotte, 0-for-3 versus Memphis, 1-for-4 versus San Antonio for the first matchup, 2-for-4, in the second matchup with San Antonio, and 1-for-5 versus Dallas. To boil it down by counting pre-season games, Jabari shot 30.1 percent from three, but without counting pre-season Jabari’s monthly percentage decreased to 28.6 percent.

Shooting in November

In November, Jabari’s shooting massively improved. Jabari had multiple games with at least three three-pointers made. One of Jabari’s best games of the season was against the Golden State Warriors on November 2, where he shot 5-for-13 from deep. Houston ultimately lost the game, but Jabari was a massive factor in helping the Rocket’s send the game to overtime. For the month of November, Jabari shot 38.2 percent from three.

Shooting in December

In December, Jabari’s is shooting a respectable 37.1 percent for the month of December and is third on the team in three-point shooting percentage over the first three months of the season at 36.4 percent overall. In December, Jabari has made at least one three-point shot in every game and has made two three-pointers twice and three three-pointers twice as well.

Hopefully, Jabari continues his improved three-point shooting, as it looks like the type of play we saw from him in college is finally starting to translate to the NBA.

DraftKings projects Rockets 2024-2025 NBA season win total

2024-08-07T09:26:47-04:00

With the start of NBA training camps just two months away, our good friends at DraftKings have released their NBA win total odds, and the Houston Rockets are projected to improve, albeit ever so slightly.

Coming off of a season in which they won 41 games on their way to a .500 record, DraftKings has Houston’s over/under on wins set at 43.5. That total is fair in the sense that the Rockets haven’t made any significant moves and are returning roughly the same squad as they did last year, with the exception being number three overall draft choice Reed Sheppard, who is expected to come off of the bench to start the year.

However, if Houston’s young players such as Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Cam Whitmore and Jalen Green do some improving, the Rockets have a much higher ceiling than a two or three-game improvement.

The Boston Celtics have the highest over/under with 58.5, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have the top number in the Western Conference at 56.5. The L.A. Lakers and Golden State Warriors are tied with the Rockets at 43.5, making them all battling for the ninth and 10th spot, with 10th being the NBA Play-In Tournament cut off, so it’s up in the air whether or not Houston is projected to make the playoffs. Though DK gives the Rockets the best odds of the Play-In despite listing the Dubs as the nine seed.

Your Western Conference order is predicted to be:

Oklahoma City Thunder – 58.5 wins
Minnesota Timberwolves – 52.5 wins
Denver Nuggets – 52.5 wins
Dallas Mavericks – 49.5 wins
Memphis Grizzlies – 47.5 wins
Phoenix Suns – 47.5 wins
Sacramento Kings – 46.5 wins
New Orleans Pelicans – 46.5 wins
Golden State Warriors – 43.5 wins
Houston Rockets – 43.5 wins
Los Angeles Lakers – 43.5 wins
Los Angeles Clippers – 40.5 wins
San Antonio Spurs – 36.5 wins
Portland Trail Blazers – 22.5 wins
Utah Jazz – not listed (I love this!)

These projections can and do change in the lead up to the regular season, so we’ll check back in with our friends at DK right around training camp for an update, but for now — 43.5 wins and a tie for the 10th seed in the Western Conference is your official betting prediction. Make sure you let us know in the comments whether or not you agree with the win totals from DraftKings.

Reacting to Bleacher Report’s five-year NBA Re-Draft

2024-07-29T14:05:47-04:00

Bleacher Report recently did a five-year NBA Re-Draft from the years 2019-2023 to see how the brightest talent in the league would stack up if they were all lumped together for an ultimate fantasy draft. Overall, I think their staff produced a portrayal of the draft on par with what would probably happen. I have my nitpicks here and there, which I will get into, but I’m not mad at the final product.

Here is their projected draft order:

Victor Wembanyama
Anthony Edwards
Tyrese Haliburton
Tyrese Maxey
Ja Morant
Paolo Banchero
Zion Williamson
Chet Holmgren
Scottie Barnes
Alperen Şengün
Jalen Williams
LaMelo Ball
Evan Mobley
Franz Wagner
Cade Cunningham
Desmond Bane
Devin Vassell
Brandon Miller
Darius Garland
Immanuel Quickley
Jalen Green
Trey Murphy III
Jabari Smith Jr.
Jalen Johnson
Jalen Suggs
Dereck Lively II
Andrew Nembhard
Herb Jones
Keegan Murray
Jaden McDaniels

As you can see, three Houston Rockets made the cut, Alperen Sengun (10), Jalen Green (21), and Jabari Smith Jr. (23), but I was a little disappointed that Amen Thompson didn’t land here. By the same token, I could make the same case for Ausar Thompson as they’re a package deal based on what we saw in year one and projecting them going forward.

Understandably so, the depth of talent that has come into the league has been bountiful, and considering that fitting five years worth of draft into 30 picks isn’t the easiest task, I’ll let the BR staff slide. Next year might be a different story though.

Shuffling back to the top of the draft, the first two picks, Victor Wembanyama and Anthony Edwards, are no-brainers. My first grievance comes at pick three where we see Haliburton over Maxey and Morant. It’s certainly a pick your poison between the three point guards, but I’d personally take Morant before the other two. Recency bias and a wonky two years of off-court issues and injuries may have muddied public perception on Morant, but he’s still a tick better than the other two at his peak in my estimation.

The six-to-eight-range, Banchero, Williamson and Holmgren, could also be debated, but I think they nailed it based on what we’ve seen. I’ve always been high on Williamson and he could have been in talks for the second pick if not for his extensive injury history. Nevertheless, I’m content seeing him placed between the top two picks from 2022.

Once we get past Scottie Barnes at nine, we start to see the fringe/future All-Star section featuring Sengun, Williams, Ball, Mobley, Wagner, Cunningham and Bane. For my money, I’d still probably take Cunningham over all these guys because I still think there’s an exceptionally talented player there, he’s just been put in an extremely unfortunate situation in Detroit.

Someone that I could see rising into the top 10 next year should BR re-do this draft is Brandon Miller (18). Heading into his sophomore year with a new coach and a healthy LaMelo, don’t be surprised if the pure shooting wing catapults into the 20 points per game range in year two.

Jalen Green edges out Trey Murphy III for the 21st selection and I’ll be the one to say it… I think I’d rather have Murphy. I’m not out on Green, but I’d be more secure going forward knowing what Murphy can provide in terms of shooting and size. Green has been more of a wild card thus far and would likely have been a fringe pick for this draft if not for an unbelievable stretch at the end of the season.

Another Pelican that I’d probably take higher than Green, and higher in general, is Herb Jones. As far as guard defense goes, there’s not an another guy that could make a push for DPOY votes to the extent that Jones has. Couple that with him developing into a 42 percent three-point shooter last year, and it’s an absolute steal considering the contract that he’s on right now.

I was glad to Jabari Smith Jr. make it onto the list as I think he still has potential to grow into the prospect that made him a top pick in the 2022 draft. It will be interesting to see what the public perception of him will be once the Rockets start to get more national TV spots, hopefully as soon as this season.

As for the rest of the draft, everyone who made it was deserving. There were a couple of honorable mentions that I would have liked to see make it, Thompson Twins included. My biggest snub would be Jonathan Kuminga. His career has fluctuated early on due to inconsistent playing time, but he really gave us a sneak peek at his upside last season. As far as pure athletes taken over the past five years, he’s near the top.

Five-Year Re-Draft by the Numbers

Players taken by draft year:

2019: Three

2020: Eight

2021: Ten

2022: Six

2023: Three

Players taken by round:

First Round: 28

Second Round: Two

Top three picks:

2019: Two (Missing: RJ Barrett)

2020: Two (Missing: James Wiseman)

2021: Three

2022: Three

2023: Two (Missing: Scoot Henderson)

Jalens by draft:

2019: Zero

2020: Zero

2021: Three (Green, Johnson and Suggs)

2022: One (Williams)

2023: Zero

What are the prospects of Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green contract extensions?

2024-07-21T11:05:28-04:00

With Evan Mobley signing a five-year, $224 million extension, the third member of the 2021 NBA Draft class to sign a max extension, it’s time to talk about the prospects of restricted free agency for the Houston Rockets, Alperen Sengun and Jalen Green. But barring any breaking news, it’s unlikely that either player will land a rookie scale max extension in the near future.

That also isn’t an indictment on how the Rockets feel about the first two draft picks in their rebuild, it’s just business. Ultimately, I expect both player’s future get hemmed out prior to a 2024-25 offseason standoff such as the one the Cleveland Cavaliers face with Isaac Okoro. Think more so in line with how Tyrese Maxey’s deal got handled.

To start, let’s examine if, rather than when, we can expect resolutions to Sengun and Green’s contract extensions.

It’s my full expectation that Sengun will receive the max contract from the Rockets at some point next summer. If he keeps on pace with the trajectory he has been on, there’s no reason that Houston shouldn’t invest in him with a hefty new deal. While I previously thought he could have inked an extension sooner than later, I believe Rafael Stone and Sengun’s side will hash this out following the 2024-25 season due to roster construction benefits.

Sengun’s $16.3 million cap hold would serve Houston better next offseason rather than signing him now, especially with Dillon Brooks still on a sizable deal, and also with the possibility of Fred VanVleet’s huge number coming off of the books. Regardless, Sengun’s still in line to get a five-year deal in excess of $220 million plus.

As for Green, I think both sides will be content in seeing how this season plays out. Green has already seen his peers, Cade Cunningham, Scottie Barnes and now Mobley, seal up max extensions this summer, and there’s no doubt in his own mind that he’s also on their level. There should also be the understanding that his level of play hasn’t fully warranted the same amount of faith on Houston’s side, but that also doesn’t mean his earning potential has plateaued.

It’s about consistency at the end of the day, and for Green, he’ll have no better chance to make a good final impression than in what is essentially a contract year. 2024-25 offers Houston the opportunity to further evaluate Green, and it offers Green the chance to raise his value.

Although Green’s future with the Rockets looked rocky at best through most of last year, he was able to salvage a chance at furthering his Dunkstronaut tenure with a sensational March, raising the Rockets to a cautiously optimistic stance on extending him longterm.

Rafael Stone was asked if Jalen and Alperen's possible extensions would be a priority. Stone said he has no problem talking to either player during the offseason about extensions.

Also believes they can keep the core 6 together
— Lachard Binkley (@BinkleyHoops) April 16, 2024

For Houston, a lot of their team building, present, past and future, will be dependent on timing and the structure of the new CBA. They say their goal is to retain the Core Six — seven now since we’re counting Reed Sheppard — but signing two max contracts now with the remainder of the Core Six on deck will eventually result in a game of budgeting.

That’s why I don’t disagree with waiting it out, with either player.

Reiterating, I think the Rockets will hand out a max rookie scale extension next summer, but I don’t envision both. Between the two, my money would be on Sengun, but I wouldn’t count Green out quite yet.

There’s still much to be determined on the identity of the team, and if either of these guys can cement themselves as a true 1A option. Plus, with the perception of Houston being a team ready to pounce on whatever superstar becomes available, are we 100 percent sure that Green would be the featured piece going out in any hypothetical trade?

What if Green demonstrates that he is a better fit going forward and Superstar X is a player that doesn’t figure to pair well Sengun? If the price is right, and Sengun holds more trade value, could the Rockets pivot towards keeping Green? Only time will tell.

I also want to emphasize that I’m not implying that the Rockets have to make a decision between Green and Sengun. There’s the third option, the butterflies and rainbows option, which would involve both players exceeding expectations and landing max contracts. However, that would require a major step forward for not only the players, but the team as well.

That option is what I hope for, but I’m not sure it’s the most realistic, nor practical option based off what we have seen over the past three seasons. So as far as contract extension talks go, unless either player agrees to take less than the max, we’ll need to circle back later in the season.

Easter Eggs from Rockets magnificent March

2024-03-31T12:33:50-04:00

March has been a majestic display of basketball for the Houston Rockets and their fans. Currently entrenched in a 11-game winning streak, the Rockets can finish the month at either 14-1 or 13-2 with one game left to play. Regardless, it’s been impressive to say the least.

The breathtaking play from Jalen Green has been the main story — for good reason — but much more than Green alone has gone right for the Rockets as they’ve trimmed the margin between them and the tenth seed down to a single game. Making up six games over the course of March when the season looked like it was on life support is outstanding.

Also consider that the team lost Alperen Sengun and Cam Whitmore along the way, and it’s a wonder that they have been able to sustain this level of success.

A huge contributing factor to this run has been that the defense has stepped up. Jumping back into the top four of defensive rating has allowed the Rockets to mirror the early season success that got the team off to an 18-16 start. This has also created more opportunities for an uptempo attack, suiting the aforementioned Green.

Not only has Green benefitted from the quicker pace, he’s also received a timely boost from his backcourt partner, Fred VanVleet. March has been a bounce back month for VanVleet following a February hampered by an abductor injury.

Fred looks much more like the $40-plus million per year type of guy the Rockets inked to a contract last summer as his numbers went up across the board in March. He has been approximately five percent better from the field and eight percent better from behind the line between the two months, and it shows in how much better the Rockets have been spacing the floor in general.

Houston leads the league in pull up three-pointers made during March, and that’s been an important factor in allowing not only Green to get off, but also VanVleet. Considering that both of them have the greenest of lights to pull from deep, it now helps that they both are cashing those shots in.

Also playing a critical role into the Rockets holding steady is the triumphant trio of Jabari Smith Jr., Jock Landale, and Jeff Green. The three J’s have held it together in the absence of Sengun, stepping up in his place to limit the loss.

Most deserving of adulation has been Smith as he’s been able to hold his own as the man in the middle. Moving Amen Thompson into Smith’s spot, and shifting Smith to center has netted the Rockets a plus five plus-minus over 14 minutes per game during March. It’s gone a long way into getting the Rockets off to good starts at the beginning of the game and after halftime.

However, in the instances that Jabari has found himself in foul trouble, or ejected from the game, there hasn’t been too significant of a drop off. That’s in thanks in large part to the emergence of Landale as a viable option. Jock has gone over double-digits in points five times throughout March. Do you want to guess how many times he did that before this season? Goose egg.

And last but not least, how about our beautiful baby boy, Amen? Without the same demand for shot attempts as his rookie contemporaries, he’s still managed to rank among the most impactful froshes out there. For the month, he has the highest plus-minus among all rookies at plus eight.

It would also be difficult to argue that any other rookies besides Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren — two seven footers — make as big of a difference in the paint as Amen does. He ranks third among rebounds between them, but FIRST in offensive rebounds as he’s pulling down (or putting back) 3.4 per game in March.

Amen has proven to be a Swiss army knife in every sense and his utilization across the floor has paid major dividends as the Rockets have dealt with injuries this month. It was only a matter of time.

March has been one of the more special times in recent Rockets’ history and it will be bittersweet to see it end. However, more meaningful games are upon the horizon and as April begins, I doubt that we’ve been fed fool’s gold. The Rockets are really building something here.