Rockets Analysis | The Dream Shake

Rockets may have to consolidate their roster

2026-03-12T09:09:39-04:00

It’s time for harsh truths. Cold, unrelenting reality. Words must no longer be minced.

The Houston Rockets’ situation has materially worsened in 2025-26.

Place the blame where you will. Ime Udoka’s offense lacks sophistication. Rafael Stone picked Jalen Green with the most consequential draft pick of the rebuild. Kevin Durant has a burner.

Each of the young players is flawed. This won’t devolve into a “who are the Rockets trading” piece. It’s a tangentially related “the Rockets will have to trade someone” piece.

Again: Cold, unrelenting reality.

Rockets’ rebuild did not go according to plan

It may be cold, but it shouldn’t be particularly surprising.

Historically, this is the rebuilding cycle, whether a team tanks or not. You have low expectations as a young team, start winning games as an up-and-coming squad, the expectations rise, and then you see if any of your young players can meet them at the highest level. If even one can, you’ve found your franchise player:

If nobody does, then nobody is safe.

That’s when consolidation happens. It’s a dirty word for “young core” enthusiasts. Fine, but NBA years are like dog years – each year is more than a year.

In a couple of seasons, the Rockets’ “young core” will be an “in-prime core”. If you think they project as title contenders, it would be impossible for us to have a conversation. I think that’s utterly delusional.

(Luckily, this is not a conversation, and you are a captive).

Sorry, I do. Let’s talk about it. Alperen Sengun has regressed to his previous standard on defense. He’s as inefficient as ever on offense. If this looks like a franchise player to you…again, delusion is the word.

The same goes for Amen Thompson. I’m not trying to play favorites. His one-level scoring will be exposed in the postseason. Even if Houston ditched Sengun for a floor spacing big and ran a pick-and-spread offense around Thompson, there’s little evidence that it would be viable. The Spurs would love to defend that offense in a ~~seven game~~ four game series.

Reed Sheppard? The last bastion of hope. This is the one player who it’s too soon to dismiss. He’s been outstanding as a sophomore. Yet, as early as it would be to dismiss him, it would be equally early to coronate him. All of which is to say, it would be better to keep him, but he shouldn’t hold up consolidation either.

Moreover, even the idea of running a “team first, no franchise player” team is problematic. To make that work, the synergy needs to be perfect. It isn’t with this team. Sengun and Sheppard are a rough defensive pairing. Sengun and Thompson are a poor offensive pairing.

This is the situation the Rockets are in. They tanked for three years (plus a bonus year of reaping the Nets’ rewards), and they didn’t net a franchise-caliber player or a perfectly constructed roster. They just didn’t.

It’s not as egregiously unfortunate as many will frame it. In that entire window, the only high lottery picks who turned out to be one of those have been Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham. Even Paolo Banchero, the patron saint of Rockets’ would-bes, hasn’t met that bar. This happens. It’s happened before. The question is this:

What happens when it happens?

Rockets need to rebuild the rebuild

The year is 2018. The Toronto Raptors are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference almost annually, but they are second by such a massive margin that it’s moot. The team is homegrown. It’s talented. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl. It is never going to win a championship as constructed:

So, they trade for Kawhi Leonard.

The year is now 2019. LeBron James has joined the Lakers for no reason other than they’re the Lakers. That may break the analogy for you, but the Rockets did land Kevin Durant for just a bit more than nothing, so the situations are comparable enough. Beyond James, the Lakers have a similar collection of strong, but sub-elite talent. Brandon Ingram. Lonzo Ball. Josh Hart. Julius Randle. None of these guys are a viable co-star for James:

So, they trade for Anthony Davis.

Turn the clock back further. Now it’s 2007. Sorry, the time machine is on the fritz. The Boston Celtics have a solid group of young talent. Rajan Rondo, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green. Not going to win a championship, etc.

Yada yada yada, Kevin Garnett.

Take a deep look in the mirror. Be brutally honest with yourself. Take a look at this Rockets core.

Do we have Baby Jokic, Turbo Igoudala, White Curry, and wings? Or, does this look a bit more like Siakam, Anunoby, and Poeltl. Ingram, Ball, and Hart.

(OK, it’s probably better than Rondo and Jefferson).

So, what should the Rockets do?

The Rockets need to make a decision soon

It doesn’t have to be this summer. It doesn’t have to be Giannis. If the Rockets want to kick the can, they can wait to see if they can find a franchise-caliber diamond in the rough in the 2027 draft. Heck, they could wait for the 2029 draft. They have major skin in that game with multiple swap rights with potential lottery teams, but good luck selling Tilman Fertitta on waiting four more years for a “guy”.

So Antetokounmpo should be on the table. Nothing should be sacred between these walls. Still, Antetokounmpo is not the perfect answer. No matter who the Rockets move, they’ll be pairing him with another non-spacer unless they’re moving both Sengun and Thompson.

Alternatively, Antetokounmpo is almost certainly the best player who’s going to shake loose during the Rockets’ consolidation window. Remember: That window isn’t particularly wide. Once these guys are in-prime players, teams will be thinking about their next deal. In two seasons, Alperen Sengun will be two (or three, pending his player option) seasons away from his first non-rookie deal.

As it stands, Reed Sheppard is an outstanding value on his rookie contract. When it comes time for his rookie extension, his team will have to answer (theme alert) difficult questions. The same holds for Amen Thompson, only a year sooner. How much do you pay the best defensive wing in basketball if he’s a non-shooting role player?

None of this is optimal, but can we be realistic for a moment? The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, and Dylan Harper would be the Rockets’ franchise player. The Thunder. Period.

Sure, that’s just two teams. Otherwise, as Nikola Jokic eventually ages, the Rockets have an opportunity to solidify themselves as the third-best team in the Western Conference for years to come.

…Hang the banner.

The third-best team in the conference consolidates, especially with another half-decade as the fourth-best team in front of them. It isn’t good enough to win an NBA championship.

This isn’t what we wanted. It wasn’t Plan A. Historically speaking, it is the de facto Plan B.

Rockets fans will say that our guys are not being optimized. There’s some truth in that. Ime Udoka’s read-and-react offense is suboptimal for a roster that’s light on pass/dribble/shoot players. Yet, that points to the broader issue:

This roster is light on pass/dribble/shoot guys.

It’s heavy on specialists. Players who are outlier strong in one area, but struggle in another. The closest player to reaching pass/dribble/shoot in the young core is Sheppard, and only time will tell if Udoka can scheme around his defensive shortcomings.

Maybe you love these kids. Perhaps you’ve grown attached. That’s cute, but if you take a long, honest look at the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, it’s impossible to come away feeling like the Rockets have enough.

Harsh, but true.

Houston Rockets vs. San Antonio Spurs game preview

2026-03-07T20:41:35-05:00

HOUSTON, TX - JANUARY 28: Victor Wembanyama #1 of the San Antonio Spurs and Kevin Durant #7 of the Houston Rockets looks on during the game on January 28, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

Tonight the Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs complete their season series. San Antonio leads 2-1, and a win for the Spurs would clinch the tiebreaker, not that it’s likely to matter. This is the first of three difficult games in four days for Houston.

To talk about the Spurs, I enlisted the help of my friend, Blaine. He’s a Spurs fan that spent many nights with us in Playback (RIP), and he’s a smart basketball mind and great dude. I asked him some questions and he was kind enough to give some super detailed answers, even when I put him on the spot with San Antonio’s championship chances. I learned a ton, and I hope you do as well.

Armin (AK): By the old Phil Jackson metric, approximately 83% of all NBA champions won 40 games before losing 20. The Spurs are one of three teams that qualify this season. How serious are San Antonio’s chances? What would you consider a successful postseason?

Blaine: Going into this season, I honestly thought we would be happy with the 6 seed. At this point in time, we are probably a year ahead of what I thought our progression would be. Last year, we finished 13th in the West. I figured we would pass Portland Trail Blazers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, and Memphis Grizzlies. I thought Dallas could be dangerous if they were healthy, but we knew Kyrie Iriving was a long shot this year, and Anthony Davis doesn’t have the best luck. I didn’t love Golden State’s offseason, the LA Clippers were (are) going through an interesting Steve Ballmer/Kawhi Leonard based investigation. That left Oklahoma City, y’all, the LA Lakers, Denver Nuggets, and Minnesota Timberwolves as teams I thought could stay ahead of us and it still be seen as a potentially successful year of further growth. Y’all lost Fred VanVleet, then Steven Adams, and Dorian Finney-Smith hasn’t been the player I thought he could be for y’all. Denver has had to go without Nikola Jokic for a stretch, Aaron Gordon for longer, and Cam Johnson hasn’t been as big of a factor as I thought he could be for them, but they should be a dangerous team come playoff time. We’ve shown we can matchup well with OKC, beating them 4-1 this season (admittedly, 1 game they basically punted), but they are still the defending champs and current #1 overall seed.

All this is to say that we definitely have a shot, but history says it’s unlikely. The list is short for teams that found postseason success with as little playoff experience as our core has. On the plus side, Harrison Barnes and Luke Kornet each have 5 playoff runs and one ring each, but Barnes was 5th in minutes for the Warriors in the 2015 finals, Kornet was 11th for the Celtics in 2024. Outside of them, De’Aaron Fox has one playoff series, that’s it for our top 10 players.

On the plus side, we have a generational talent that is continuing to grow (in talent, but some say he might be taller than he was last year), and the team around him is getting better too. I wrote earlier that I thought we would be happy with the 6th seed going into the year. What I didn’t see that had me setting the lower expectations was not only Victor Wembanyama still clinging to the possibility of hitting the 65 game mark, but that we now have a team around him that doesn’t crumble without him on the floor. I believe we are 10-4 in games without him this season, although we were lucky that many of those came during a somewhat forgiving stretch.

Fox has been great, even though it seems like we are keeping his usage a bit lower than he deserves. He hasn’t been getting near the credit he deserves from Spurs fans, which I hope is due to the excitement of our younger core, I can also be guilty of this. I’m glad he got the all-star nod even if there were arguments for other replacements.

Stephon Castle has taken a nice leap. His 3% hasn’t increased much, but I’m more confident in the attempts than I was last year. His playmaking continues to grow and he is probably the best lobber on the team. He’s also the best point-of-attack defender and has had some really nice putbacks. I believe he is deserving of an All-Defensive Team selection. I see him and Amen Thompson as very comparable players. Castle is a better shooter and maybe slight edge in playmaking, while Thompson still has the advantage on defense and rebounding.

Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson have both adjusted their games to become really useful to us. Vassell as a spark plug on offense, and Keldon as a battery and battering ram. Vassell has had a really good shooting stretch. In a 5 game stretch from 2/23-3/3 he averaged 5 3PMs on 62.5%. Johnson is still in the running for 6MOY, although I think the chances have chilled slightly post all star break.

AK: San Antonio appears so deep right now and is seemingly getting contributions from everyone. Besides playoff experience, what do the Spurs need to get to the next level moving forward? Is internal development enough or do you see the Spurs making a splash in free agency in Wemby’s last rookie contract season? (Note: The Spurs will have something around $35-40 million in space under the first apron this summer)

Blaine: Along with the guys above, Dylan Harper and Carter Bryant are also exciting looks into the future while providing valuable play. Harper plays with a veteran’s level of change of pace and shows real flashes of something special, while Bryant has recently shown flashes of becoming a great 3&D player. They are clear parts of the future so some care needs to be taken that we have money available for them when the time comes.

Kornet is the final player I feel sure will be around for the next 3 years. He’s been a really great back up big, even if it doesn’t always show up in the box score. He does so many of the little things that allow the team to be successful.

Barnes has been a solid vet and has gone through stretches of being a really important floor stretcher for us. Unfortunately, his ironman streak of 364 straight regular season games played was snapped due to a sore ankle, his 3% has dropped over 5% from last year, Bryant is showing growth, and his current contract is too big and runs out at the end of the year. He’d be great to have back, but I don’t know that he would or should take the cut needed for us to make it happen.

Julian Champagnie is currently on one of the best contracts (non-rookie or superstar-on-max edition). We have a team option, but I’m sure we will try to renegotiate for a longer deal while trying to keep it somewhat team friendly.

Looking into next year, we have Atlanta’s pick that will likely be a lottery pick. Depending on where that pick falls could determine if we feel like we luck into another rotational piece or if we use it to package for a different piece or future pick. Looking over a list of upcoming FAs, the number of good fits that I think have a ok chance of moving are fairly slim. Rui Hachimura and John Collins are maybe the best options which aren’t the flashiest moves. Therefore, I think our best chance at a big swing would be to sign and trade Barnes packaged with ATL’s pick. A bigger swing would have to include Vassell or Johnson that, as I’ve stated, have been playing well this season and could be considered the hearts of the team, especially Keldon on the latter.

I think it is more likely that we try to make a Barnes deal work, while extending Wemby and Champagnie.

AK: Fill in the blank: The Spurs are winning a title in the next _____ years.

Blaine: When Tim Duncan retired, I said with full sincerity that I would be satisfied as a fan if we never won another because of the 5 rings he brought to my favorite team, and asking for anything further would be greedy. Well, the 3rd lucky pick of a ping pong ball that gave me a generation big to watch has me feeling like Scrooge McDuck. I stated earlier in the year that I’m still not a big fan of the Cup. Players get more money, good for them, but for me as a fan, I’m not ready to give this midseason tournament any prestige. That being said, it was great for us this year. The OKC and New York Knicks games had a solid playoff-like atmosphere that gives the young core at least a small feel of what to expect come playoffs. I’m trying hard to keep my expectations tempered. Injuries happen, guys playing well lead to them earning contracts that break teams apart, teams struggle at the wrong time, and opposing teams have the opposite happen at the right time for them. We aren’t here for that though, and I’m not backing down from your challenge to actually answer this question that I usually talk my way around. Spurs in 3. Maybe we get lucky this year, we have been playing really well. If we make it to the conference finals this year, I think we can rebound and make it through the next. If we flame out early, I think we do whatever we need to to make it work in the 3rd. There, you got me to say it. You happy?

AK: What are your thoughts on the Rockets as an outsider?

Blaine: Before the injuries, I really thought this could be y’all’s year. I’ve been telling you since the start of the year that I think y’all are a bad matchup for us. Wemby has more difficulty with Alperen Sengun’s offensive timing, Kevin Durant is still a bucket, Jabari Smith Jr. gives y’all extra size, and I remain a big fan of both Amen and Reed Sheppard.

AK: Got any fun tidbits I didn’t ask?

Blaine: Just for fun, Spurs have some pretty good duo names. Ex Area 51 (Wemby/Castle), Pineapple Express (Castle/Vassell), Slash Bros (Castle/Harper), French Vanilla (Wemby/Kornet), White Castle (Castle/Kornet). Do the Rockets have any fun nicknames?

Also, current situation of Wemby chasing Dream’s block record:

Current Pace (3.48) 936 games to overtake (14.4 65 game seasons)

Wemby 1st 3 seasons: 166 games, 577 blocks, 3.48 BPG

Hakeem 1st 3 seasons: 225 games, 705 blocks, 3.13 BPG

Hakeem in 1st 166 games: 501 blocks, 3.02 BPG

Wemby age now 22 years 62 days

Hakeem age first nba game 21 years 280 days

Tip-off

7pm CT

How To Watch

Peacock/NBC

Injury Report

Rockets

Steven Adams: OUT

Fred VanVleet: OUT

Jae’Sean Tate: OUT

Spurs

Harrison Barnes: OUT

Mason Plumlee: OUT

David Jones Garcia: OUT

The Line (as of this post)

SA -4.5

Check here for updates

Looking ahead because we can

Tuesday night at home against the Toronto Raptors

Ime Udoka is overworking Rockets Amen Thompson

2026-03-03T20:24:54-05:00

Every NBA player has a role. That’s not to say that every NBA player has the right role.

I worked at a law firm for five years. For the first year, I worked in the file room. I did well there because it would definitely be possible to train a primate to do the job.

Eventually, I was promoted to a desk job. I struggled mightily. It was far more complex. My manager hated me.

In time, it became clear that my biggest strength was talking to the clients. I became, in a sense, the face of the company. I was responsible for client intake – I was the first person you met. Perhaps the least competent, but people seem to trust me. I was also responsible for calling clients to give them bad news.

The point? I found my role. I went from a simple role to a role I couldn’t handle, into an ideal role.

Amen Thompson needs the same transformation with the Houston Rockets.

Rockets overburden young wing

In 2024-25, Thompson had a 17.5% Usage Rate. This year, he’s up to 20.2%.

He has a 22.0% frequency as a pick-and-roll ball-handler, up from 15.8%. If you follow this team, you know what’s going on. Thompson was a wing last year, and this year, he’s the starting point guard.

That’s not all. It’s more difficult to quantify a defensive role change, but Thompson’s responsibilities have been qualitatively different in 2025-26. He is frequently tasked with guarding the opposing team’s best offensive player. Last season, that was typically Dillon Brooks’ job.

It’s all resulted in a puzzling season for Thompson. His basic counting stats are up across the board, but his Box Plus/Minus (BPM) has slipped from 4.1 to 1.8. For reference, that’s the difference between ranking between (coincidentally) Alperen Sengun and Kevin Durant this year, compared to his real place tied with Santi Aldama and Nic Claxton.

Now, it has potentially resulted in an injury.

Rockets may be without Thompson for a spell

Granted, the severity of his injury as of this writing is unknown.

More broadly, this could be a false correlation. Players get injured regardless of their workload. Yet, it’s hard to shake the feeling that Thompson is biting off more than he can chew.

His 36.9 minutes per game rank second in the league behind Tyrese Maxey. Thompson is being asked to do more than he’s ever done and play more in the process.

Last year, he earned his first (of many) All-Defense selections. He joined Dyson Daniels, Luguentz Dort, Draymond Green, and Evan Mobley. Where do Thompson’s All-Defense peers land in usage this year?

2024-25 All-Defensive Usage Rates in 2025-26

Evan Mobley (22.1%)

Amen Thompson (20.2%)

Draymond Green (16.9%)

Dyson Daniels (16.0%)

Luguentz Dort (14.1%(

So, Thompson is behind Mobley. Yet, in all likelihood, he isn’t really behind Mobley.

Thompson gets 73.4 touches per game to Mobley’s 66.5. Mobley does sometimes create for Cleveland, but he’s more of a play finisher, which factors into Basketball Reference’s measure of Usage. Simply put, Thompson is the only All-Defensive selection from 2024-25 operating as a primary ball-handler in 2025-26.

Given that the second All-Defensive squad was comprised of Toumani Camara, Rudy Gobert, Jaren Jackson Jr., Jalen Williams, and Ivica Zubac, Thompson likely is the most or second-most (Williams) used offensive player between each squad. If Ime Udoka wants Thompson to continue making All-Defensive First Team appearances, he may need to lighten Thompson’s offensive load.

There seems to be a false dichotomy when we talk about “on” vs. “off” ball NBA players. To suggest that Houston should move Thompson to an “off-ball role” is an oversimplification. It would be more accurate to say that the Rockets should simply reduce his time on-ball.

That could help them find his perfect role.

Are Rockets primed for first-round postseason exit again?

2026-03-02T21:27:49-05:00

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 29: Head coach Ime Udoka of the Houston Rockets reacts against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena on January 29, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) | Getty Images

This year’s Houston Rockets team has been one of the most inconsistent iterations of the team seen in recent memory. More over, the Rockets have been one of the most inconsistent ball clubs in the entire league.

They’re far from a lock to beat the league’s relatively easier opponents. In fact, I tend to get a bit more concerned when I see a less talented team on the schedule.

(Although the tanking teams will likely be mailing it in from this point on. The 2026 draft class is that good).

11 of Houston’s losses have been against teams below. 500.

The Rockets would have the NBA’s best record if they were able to win those games. It’s clear that the Rockets get up for games against some of the league’s better teams.

Which begs the question of how far this year’s Rockets team will advance in the postseason. I think it’ll be much like last season — feisty team that will be a difficult matchup in the first round, and probably beat up their opponent, even in a losing effort, by taking a series to seven games.

Unless the Rockets face the Lakers in the first round, which would be the matchup if the postseason started today.

Otherwise, it’s difficult to view the Rockets as contenders. For one, they’re missing two of their most important players on the roster, in Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams.

Those two represent $40 million in salary, sitting on the bench. Then you have to dive into the Rockets’ warts.

Turnovers — which will absolutely lose you a game and eradicate a lead rather quickly. Not capitalizing on trips at the charity stripe (Houston ranks 26th in foul shooting, as of this writing).

Stagnant offense. Houston ranks in the bottom eight in passes made per game, bottom five in points created by assists and bottom eight in potential assists.

Then there’s the Amen Thompson positional alignment. It’s clear that he’s best when cutting to the baseline and/or getting downhill. Attacking and staying in that dunker spot.

Not standing at the top of the key or behind the 3-point line. That plays into the hands of the defense, because he’s going to be tempted to take an open three.

But any 3-point shot by Thompson is essentially a turnover because it’s a bad shot and/or possession.

Then there’s the over reliance on Kevin Durant. He’s been outer-worldly and likely in line for an All-NBA selection.

But teams will take that away in the postseason and make Houston’s role players step up.

Add up the sum of the parts, and you get a fairly good team, capable of winning 50 games and being a tough first round matchup.

Anything beyond that will depend heavily on the matchup.

Let’s not over think this: The Kevin Durant trade was good for Rockets

2026-03-03T21:22:14-05:00

MIAMI, FL - FEBRUARY 28: Kevin Durant #7 of the Houston Rockets during the game against the Miami Heat on February 28, 2026 at Kaseya Center in Miami, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

The question has been raised throughout the season. Should the Houston Rockets have made last offseason’s trade for Kevin Durant?

Those who say no will likely reference Houston’s eerily similar winning clip to last season. To that point, the Rockets have gone 37-22 through 59 games in 2025-26. One year ago, they had the same record at the same point.

Which has been used to make the argument that the Rockets didn’t get better with Durant.

However, that actually undersells the point. Especially considering what all has happened to the Rockets, from a roster standpoint.

Their infrastructure has been shaken, due to injury. Fred VanVleet, Houston’s lone table-setter over the last two seasons, hasn’t played.

(Which we’ve heard endlessly, I know).

Houston has struggled to get into their sets. The pick-and-roll action (which seems to be the only offensive gameplan in Ime Udoka’s toolbelt) has been rather..meh. Amen Thompson has the will to fill that void but he doesn’t have the know-how.

Alperen Sengun has missed a handful of games (and has faded defensively). Tari Eason has missed 22 games.

Steven Adams’ loss might be the most pivotal across the league this season.

Jabari Smith Jr. has been very inconsistent throughout the season. Durant has been the only constant.

Even at 37-years-old. He ranks third in minutes per game and fourth in total minutes played.

He’s also bailed the Rockets out in a litany of offensive possessions, hitting shots with an insanely high degree of difficulty.

And has even had to take on a playmaking role (which hasn’t always been pretty, I agree).

But imagine if Houston didn’t make that trade. Jalen Green has missed most of the season.

When he has played, he’s flashed the same inconsistencies and/or hot-and-cold propensity. Dillon Brooks has certainly been missed this season, but he’s also benefited from having an ample amount of freedom to let it fly and chuck. He’s taking 17.4 shots per game, which is a career-high.

Yet and still, his efficiency has been….meh. 50.7 percent effective shooting (which is worse than either of his two seasons in Houston), and 54.7 true shooting (which is also worse than either of his two seasons with the Rockets, but almost identical to his first season with the Rockets in 2023-24).

Brooks wouldn’t have been able to replace (or even match) the production that we’ve seen from Durant this season.

This trade was a no-brainer. Even upon revisiting it.

Houston would be a lottery team without Adams, VanVleet, and Durant. And if you were to undo the trade and place Green back on the roster this season, they would’ve been without him too.

It’s also worth noting that Houston spent years seeking a closer, even with Green on the roster. Because he didn’t prove capable of being a consistent closer.

So even if they didn’t make the deal for Durant (which carried a lower than usual asking price), they would’ve still likely moved those pieces for someone else, eventually.

Is Reed Sheppard the next Steph Curry?

2026-02-28T08:57:48-05:00

In some NBA circles, Reed Sheppard has a nickname.

Rule of thumb: If Basketball Reference won’t print it, neither will The Dream Shake. Hmmm. How about Triple Espresso Curry? Why not I Ran Into A Jerk From High School, He Seemed Really Excited To See Me Even Though We Were Never Friends Curry?

To quote the ever-poignant Pusha T (which in itself is a hint), if you know, you know. The more significant point, of course, is that Sheppard has garnered comparisons to Curry.

Are they legitimate?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a historic shooter

Warning: This attempt at statistical comparison is riddled with flaws.

Firstly, it’d have been better to compare Curry’s sophomore stats. Unfortunately, NBA.com’s tracking data doesn’t go back that far. The furthest back we could get was 2013-14. By then, Curry was a fringe MVP candidate, even if not the direct descendant of Khrysos that Rockets fans have grown to loathe.

Secondly, the league has changed dramatically in the last decade-and-change. Curry is the best shooter of all time, but it’s fair to say that the NBA did not know how to defend him when his style of play was beginning to crystallize. Ironically, the Rockets were instrumental in introducing some coverages that kind of, sort of mitigated his impact for stretches. It’s fair to assume Sheppard is seeing those coverages more regularly.

Lastly, Steph Curry is the best shooter of all time. It stands to reason that he’s unlikely to be number two by the time Sheppard retires. This is the highest bar.

So, the fact that Sheppard comes close to meeting it is very encouraging.

On catch-and-shoot threes, Curry shot 45.8% on 2.6 attempts per game in 2013-14. Sheppard is hitting 40.7% of his 4.4 threes per game. On pull-up threes, Curry hit 40.3% of his 4.4 attempts, while Sheppard is hitting 38.1% of his 2.0 per game.

On face value, perhaps that’s not as comparable as you’d like. The pull-up shooting is the secret sauce. That’s the skill that allowed Curry to warp the geometry of the basketball court. It’s what separates him from the Klay Thompsons and Ray Allens of the world.

Two counterpoints. First, 38.1% is a very strong percentage on pull-up triples. For context, Anthony Edwards is hitting 34.0% of his 6.0 attempts per game. There’s a simple conclusion here: Sheppard should shoot more pull-up threes. He’s got considerable breathing room for his accuracy to decline and remain one of the most effective pull-up three-point shooters in the NBA. As of now, he shoots a higher percentage than anyone in the top-10 in volume besides Ty Jerome and – you guessed it – Steph Curry.

Second, Sheppard doesn’t have to be a Curry facsimile to be one of the most impactful shooters in the NBA. Let it be said that Curry never played with a big man with Alperen Sengun’s combination of interior gravity and passing acumen. Given the potential synergy there, Sheppard’s catch-and-shoot chops could mean more for the Rockets than Curry’s meant for the Warriors.

Once again, volume is a variable. This is a neat stat that shows how much the league has changed. In 2013-14, Curry shot 8.1 threes per 75 possessions. That ranked third in the league behind Miro Telotovic (a beautiful blast from the past, what a fun player) and Gerald Green* (you’re a Rockets fan, so you know what that’s about).

*Green is the only celebrity I ever played against in NBA 2K. Random Rec. The dude played exactly like his NBA self. Finished 4/10 from three, 4/10 from the field. Pretty sure he missed 5 straight before hitting three impossible triples in a row. Surreal.

Sheppard shoots 9.7 threes per 75 possessions. That’s 12th in the league. Regardless of shot type, he needs to shoot more three-pointers. That’s true on a per-possession basis, but it’s more broadly true in general, which is a roundabout way of saying Ime Udoka needs to give him more minutes.

Could that unlock his inner Curry-ness?

Rockets’ Reed Sheppard can be a star

For Udoka to play Sheppard more, Sheppard needs to improve on defense.

He’s been doing that lately. Sheppard is gambling less. All of the hand-wringing about his efforts on that end may have been no more than a reaction to watching a rookie/sophomore on a contending NBA team.

He won’t be Curry. Nobody will. That’s fine. If Sheppard can be, say, 80% of a Steph Curry offensively plus elite defensive playmaking (even if exploitable in certain matchups), that feels like a borderline franchise player. If he can hit 90%, that’s a certified franchise stud.

If you disagree, you might be on drugs.

Jabari Smith Jr. has broken his slump with recent stretch for Rockets

2026-02-26T11:35:51-05:00

Whether you’re a fan of Jabari Smith jkr. or still wish Houston drafted Paolo Banchero or Chet Holmgren, there’s no denying that Jabari Smith seems to have turned a corner after struggling for a stretch earlier this year.

In the four games after the All-Star break, Jabari has scored 15, 21, 31 and 12 points, respectively, which averages out to almost 20 points per game (19.8). However, it’s not just the scoring for Jabari, it’s how he’s scoring. Houston has struggled offensively since December 1 into parts of January, and over that time period, Smith had the worst shooting run of his career. Smith shot just 31.7 percent from downtown and 41.1 percent from the field between December and mid-January. Smith started turning it around after that and has played some of the best basketball of his career, especially over the last 15 games, according to Sports Illustrated. Moreover, in this recent stretch since the ASB, Jabari is shooting a scorching 46 percent from three, and while that number will obviously come back down to earth, if Jabari could stay shooting in the high 30s to low 40s percentage-wise, that will be a huge boost for a Rockets team that has struggled at times offensively.

Since the break, Jabari’s line reads 19.9 points, 5.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.5 blocks per game on 64 percent shooting from the floor (not a misprint) and 46 percernt from deep. He’s even showed an improved handle, the lack of which has been a common fan critiscism for the 22-year-old forward.

If Jabari keeps playing like this, sucess for the Houston as a team is likely to follow, as according to stats from RocketsWire, when shooting 38.3 percent on threes and averaging 15.8 points towards the start of the season (Oct. 21 to Jan. 1), Houston got out to a great offensive start. Simmilarly, when Jabari’s three-point percentage went down to 30.6 percent (from Jan. 3 through Jan. 16), Houston as a whole began to struggle, and in a recent sample size (Feb. 10 through Feb.24) Jabari is shooting 45 percent from three. The Rockets are 4-2 over that stretch, a higher win percentage (.666) than their cumulative record for the season (.632). All this being said, Houston clearly is benefiting from Jabari’s recent play, as it provides the team another offensive weapon.

So while Smith took a lot of criticism for his bad stretch, he also deserves praise for turning it around. The still young Smith has time to develop into the top-notch stretch four Houston fans thought was being drafted. All it takes is a little more season-long consistency. He’s got three or four more seasons before he enters his athletic prime.

Jabari Smith jr. and the rest of the Rockets will be back in action Thursday at 6:30 pm as they take on the Orlando Magic in Orlando. You can watch the game on SCHN, and as always, be sure to check back at The Dream Shake for both pre- and post-game content.

Rockets blowout Kings at home 128-97

2026-02-26T05:11:54-05:00

Feb 25, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Rockets forward Kevin Durant (7) reacts after a turnover during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-Imagn Images | Troy Taormina-Imagn Images

When the Houston Rockets took a 77-50 lead into the half against the Sacramento kings on Wednesday night, anyone who thought to themselves, “It’s over.” hasn’t watched Rockets basketball this season. Undoubtedly, you yourself may have has some reservations about switching over to your favorite Netflix show and calling it a night. Those reservations were briefly justified when the Kings started the second half on a 13-2 run, prompting Ime Udoka to call a time out, just few minutes into the quarter.

Udoka has seen what we have all seen before. A tale of two halves. To his credit, he pressed the right buttons and kept with the right combination of players that kept the offense from suddenly becoming stagnant. Alperen Sengun (26-point triple-double), Kevin Durant (21 points on 62 percent shooting), and Reed Sheppard (28 points on 43 percent from the three-point line) really powered the Rockets offensively, along with a much welcomed showing from Josh Okogie who shot an efficient 5-of-7 from the field, of which three of those shots were from behind the arc.

With Amen Thompson out with an apparent quad injury, Aaron Holiday got some run and not only shot well but gave the Rockets another ball handler that was able to help keep the ball movement crisp. Jabari Smith had 12 points on 6-of-12 from the field and even “Uncle Jeff” Green got some run in this game chipping in 5 points. It was a complete team victory over a bad Sacramento Kings team. However, given some of the issues the Rockets have had in these types of games, including against these very Kings, this win is not something to shake a stick at. In fact, Rockets fans hope it’s a sign that this team is on track to no longer struggle to win these types of games against lesser opponents.

If the Rockets are going to achieve what we all hope they are going to achieve, then these types of games need to be automatic. It’s especially helpful that the main rotation was able to rest in the fourth quarter headed into the second game of a back-to-back, this time on the road in Orlando. Getting a home win is also a welcome sight as the Rockets had lost four of the last 7 home games. In the end, a win is a win, and the Rockets need to start stacking as many of those as possible, so tonight Rockets fans can go home happy.

A way-too-early relitigation of Rockets Kevin Durant trade

2026-02-25T15:36:46-05:00

It’s been said that hindsight is 20/20.

Is it?

It likely depends on how far removed you are from what you’re trying to see. The past is a vacuous concept. Anything you do is in the past a milesecond later. Perhaps it’s most accurate to say that hindsight will eventually be 20/20.

Is it time to relitigate the Kevin Durant trade yet?

Probably not. We won’t have a comprehensive picture of the decision for another couple of years. That said, we’re over halfway through the first season of The Durant Experience. We can introduce the topic.

So, let’s.

Rockets didn’t spare much for Durant

It would not be fair to look at Jalen Green’s stats.

(Proceeds to take just a little peek at Jalen Green’s stats).

The former Rockets guard has played 11 games in the Valley. He’s averaging 24.8 points per 75 possessions, which is good, with a 46.1 True Shooting % (TS%), which is…

Unspeakably awful? Impervious to hyperbole?

Bad. It’s very bad.

Yet, it seems likely that injuries have hampered Green. He looks compromised. That’s unfortunate, but it’s only rational to observe that this looks like a wasted season for a 24-year-old with no time to waste.

Would he have gotten hurt in Houston? Now you’re invoking The Butterfly Effect. It’s too speculative, even if watching Green in Houston often felt like being in an episode of Punk’d.

(Ashton Kutcher).

Dillon Brooks is having a career year. He’s averaging 20.9 points per game. The Rockets miss Brooks. His point-of-attack defense would be useful this year. Put a pin in that.

Khaman Maluach is averaging 1.8 points and 1.6 rebounds per game. That said, there’s no reason to assume Houston would have drafted Maluach. They could have picked Cedric “I’m not a” Coward, who’s been sensational for the Grizzlies, and was selected one spot later.

Again, we’re getting too hypothetical. Other than Coward, there’s nobody left on the board you’d look at and even entertain over having Kevin Durant, besides Derek Queen, who distinctly could not play alongside Alperen Sengun. For argument’s sake, let’s say Houston gave up Green, Brooks, and the median player picked between 10th and, say, 20th in a wide-open 2025 NBA Draft for Kevin Durant.

Mistake?

Rockets’ Durant trade is aging…decently?

I’ll say this: I’d rather have Coward and Brooks than Durant right now.

Call it a hot take. Coward is young and very much a player the Rockets’ young core could conceptually use. The Rockets could gradually phase Green out as they phased Coward in. They’d have less intense expectations and a clearer future outlook.

Now, they’re downright confusing. Is this team operating on Durant’s time, or the young guns? We’ve been over this ad nauseam, but if Houston hadn’t made the Durant trade, we wouldn’t have to.

That said…

If we assume Houston doesn’t draft Coward, this was still (in my opinion) the right decision. A flailing Green, good veteran, and some kind of Noa Essengue or Joan Beringer (both intriguing young players, to be clear) remains an excellent price for Kevin Durant.

Some fans will evaluate strictly through the lens of result. It seems more reasonable to factor process into your analysis. The Rockets made this deal under the pretense that it gave them a fighting chance of winning an NBA title in 2025-26. Fred VanVleet’s injury dashed those dreams.

If you’re still a Green truther…I don’t know what to tell you. It would be generous to say that he’s on track to be Zach LaVine. If you’re unfamiliar with LaVine, he’s the guy who averages 20 points per game every year and, somehow, is untradeable at the deadline because of how little impact he has on his team’s success.

That’s not to say Green can’t succeed. Any number larger than zero is not zero. There’s a non-zero chance he wins an MVP award in his career, but it’s likely less than one percent. The more likely result is that the centerpiece of the Durant deal is a player the Rockets won’t miss.

They had lots of time to draw that conclusion.

The case for the Rockets not doing anything drastic

2026-02-24T12:39:12-05:00

HOUSTON, TX - FEBRUARY 23: Alperen Sengun #28 and Kevin Durant #7 of the Houston Rockets looks on during the game against the Utah Jazz on February 23, 2026 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Logan Riely/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images

There are 30 teams in the National Basketball Association.

(How’s that for insight?)

Some have it easier than others. That’s always been the case. The NBA practically has a caste system. Moving up a rung requires more maneuvering than Viola disguising himself as Cesario in Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night.

Take the Washington Wizards. They are cosmically stinky. The best player in the franchise’s history is Wes Unseld, who, with all due respect, played in an era when an NBA head coach quite literally lit stogies during games.

That was Red Auerbach, the head coach of a Celtics team that always gets to be good for no apparent reason. At least the Lakers play in Los Angeles. There’s at least a causal explanation for their never-yielding goodness.

Then, there’s the Houston Rockets.

Middle-upper class. Seldom among the best teams in the league. Rarely in the duldrums. This iteration of the team is no exception.

There are teams you’d readily trade places with. Please do not deny it. If the Spurs offered to trade rosters and assets, you would trade rosters and assets. Lest we even name The Team Who Shall Not Be Named.

Yet, as a Rockets fan, complaints will find deaf ears with over half of the league’s fanbases. They are objectively in a good spot.

Maybe they shouldn’t do anything about it.

Rockets don’t need to rush decisions

This may seem like a 180. Consider it a publicly available internal dialogue of a confused fan.

Antetokounmpo is tempting. The logic is simple. This is the best player that is likely to be available while the Rockets have assets. Get him.

If they do, you won’t find complaints from me. More broadly, the Rockets’ roster is flawed, perhaps irredeemably. We should all be cozying up to the reality that Alperen Sengun and Amen Thompson are not a natural fit. Neither is a natural fit with Antetokounmpo, for the same reasons, but the logic in acquiring him would be that the Rockets are already this good with a roster flaw, so imagine how much better they’d be with an upgrade.

Yet…you’re still trading the farm without alleviating your two non-shooter problem. You’re solving your no franchise player problem, but creating a new no more assets problem. From a utility perspective, the math does not, as the kids say, math.

Questions emerge. Are we 100% sure you need a franchise player in what’s been dubbed in some circles as “the weakest link era”? No, but I land around 90%. Depth matters more than before, but it hasn’t usurped top-end talent as a priority. The best teams in the league have the best players in the league, and depth. You still need an elite player; it’s just that now, it seems more optimal to have 5 good players behind them rather than 2 elite ones.

(Unless you’re The Team Who Shall Not Be Named. Then, you’ve got Michael Jordan’s successor flanked by Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, and tremendous depth).

Are we 100% sure the Rockets don’t have a franchise player? No. I land around 85%.

It’s such a high bar. If it’s going to be Sengun, he needs to shoot about 10% better between zero-and-three feet if he’s not going to consistently shoot threes. If it’s going to be Thompson, he needs to shoot 10-15% better from deep if he’s going to functionally be a guard (and if he’s not going to be a guard, he’s not going to be a franchise player).

Reed Sheppard is an unknown variable in that sense. He can’t grow, so his three-point gravity has to be so immense as to offset his height. He’ll need to improve his handle. There’s no discernible statistical reason why he can’t be the guy, but his flaw may prove the most debilitating of the group.

Are we 100% sure the franchise player has to be currently on the roster, or Giannis Antetokounmpo?

…Now, we’ve arrived at the question.

If the Rockets think they’ll have to trade for “their guy”, they may want to consider haste. These players are not getting any younger. They’re approaching their mid-20s, and the “young player” luster will wear off quickly. That doesn’t mean they must move for Antetokounmpo, but it does mean they’ll basically have to pull the trigger on the next guy (Ant? Can Tyrese Maxey sustain his current offensive production in a winning environment, and would that make him a top-10ish player?) to hit the market.

Could they still draft that guy? The Rockets have some premium picks coming up. Between the Suns and the Nets, they’re likely to pick in the 2027 lottery. The class is seen as weak: But so was the class that yielded Antetokounmpo.

(And Nikola Jokic, by the way).

So many considerations. So much uncertainty. Here’s where it pays to be an optimist. The Rockets are still young. They still have a lot of picks. The glass is half full.

Why rush to alter a good situation? Within the next couple of years, this organization must clarify its direction. That doesn’t mean it’s pressing enough to rush into anything now. If the Rockets do decide to get Antetokounmpo, it will be a defensible decision, but perhaps the best thing to do is sit back, see what they yield with their next crop of draft picks, and make a decision from there.

The right choice could improve their class standing.