It’s time for harsh truths. Cold, unrelenting reality. Words must no longer be minced.
The Houston Rockets’ situation has materially worsened in 2025-26.
Place the blame where you will. Ime Udoka’s offense lacks sophistication. Rafael Stone picked Jalen Green with the most consequential draft pick of the rebuild. Kevin Durant has a burner.
Each of the young players is flawed. This won’t devolve into a “who are the Rockets trading” piece. It’s a tangentially related “the Rockets will have to trade someone” piece.
Again: Cold, unrelenting reality.
Rockets’ rebuild did not go according to plan
It may be cold, but it shouldn’t be particularly surprising.
Historically, this is the rebuilding cycle, whether a team tanks or not. You have low expectations as a young team, start winning games as an up-and-coming squad, the expectations rise, and then you see if any of your young players can meet them at the highest level. If even one can, you’ve found your franchise player:
If nobody does, then nobody is safe.
That’s when consolidation happens. It’s a dirty word for “young core” enthusiasts. Fine, but NBA years are like dog years – each year is more than a year.
In a couple of seasons, the Rockets’ “young core” will be an “in-prime core”. If you think they project as title contenders, it would be impossible for us to have a conversation. I think that’s utterly delusional.
(Luckily, this is not a conversation, and you are a captive).
Sorry, I do. Let’s talk about it. Alperen Sengun has regressed to his previous standard on defense. He’s as inefficient as ever on offense. If this looks like a franchise player to you…again, delusion is the word.
The same goes for Amen Thompson. I’m not trying to play favorites. His one-level scoring will be exposed in the postseason. Even if Houston ditched Sengun for a floor spacing big and ran a pick-and-spread offense around Thompson, there’s little evidence that it would be viable. The Spurs would love to defend that offense in a seven game four game series.
Reed Sheppard? The last bastion of hope. This is the one player who it’s too soon to dismiss. He’s been outstanding as a sophomore. Yet, as early as it would be to dismiss him, it would be equally early to coronate him. All of which is to say, it would be better to keep him, but he shouldn’t hold up consolidation either.
Moreover, even the idea of running a “team first, no franchise player” team is problematic. To make that work, the synergy needs to be perfect. It isn’t with this team. Sengun and Sheppard are a rough defensive pairing. Sengun and Thompson are a poor offensive pairing.
This is the situation the Rockets are in. They tanked for three years (plus a bonus year of reaping the Nets’ rewards), and they didn’t net a franchise-caliber player or a perfectly constructed roster. They just didn’t.
It’s not as egregiously unfortunate as many will frame it. In that entire window, the only high lottery picks who turned out to be one of those have been Victor Wembanyama and Cade Cunningham. Even Paolo Banchero, the patron saint of Rockets’ would-bes, hasn’t met that bar. This happens. It’s happened before. The question is this:
What happens when it happens?
Rockets need to rebuild the rebuild
The year is 2018. The Toronto Raptors are the second-best team in the Eastern Conference almost annually, but they are second by such a massive margin that it’s moot. The team is homegrown. It’s talented. Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl. It is never going to win a championship as constructed:
So, they trade for Kawhi Leonard.
The year is now 2019. LeBron James has joined the Lakers for no reason other than they’re the Lakers. That may break the analogy for you, but the Rockets did land Kevin Durant for just a bit more than nothing, so the situations are comparable enough. Beyond James, the Lakers have a similar collection of strong, but sub-elite talent. Brandon Ingram. Lonzo Ball. Josh Hart. Julius Randle. None of these guys are a viable co-star for James:
So, they trade for Anthony Davis.
Turn the clock back further. Now it’s 2007. Sorry, the time machine is on the fritz. The Boston Celtics have a solid group of young talent. Rajan Rondo, Al Jefferson, Gerald Green. Not going to win a championship, etc.
Yada yada yada, Kevin Garnett.
Take a deep look in the mirror. Be brutally honest with yourself. Take a look at this Rockets core.
Do we have Baby Jokic, Turbo Igoudala, White Curry, and wings? Or, does this look a bit more like Siakam, Anunoby, and Poeltl. Ingram, Ball, and Hart.
(OK, it’s probably better than Rondo and Jefferson).
So, what should the Rockets do?
The Rockets need to make a decision soon
It doesn’t have to be this summer. It doesn’t have to be Giannis. If the Rockets want to kick the can, they can wait to see if they can find a franchise-caliber diamond in the rough in the 2027 draft. Heck, they could wait for the 2029 draft. They have major skin in that game with multiple swap rights with potential lottery teams, but good luck selling Tilman Fertitta on waiting four more years for a “guy”.
So Antetokounmpo should be on the table. Nothing should be sacred between these walls. Still, Antetokounmpo is not the perfect answer. No matter who the Rockets move, they’ll be pairing him with another non-spacer unless they’re moving both Sengun and Thompson.
Alternatively, Antetokounmpo is almost certainly the best player who’s going to shake loose during the Rockets’ consolidation window. Remember: That window isn’t particularly wide. Once these guys are in-prime players, teams will be thinking about their next deal. In two seasons, Alperen Sengun will be two (or three, pending his player option) seasons away from his first non-rookie deal.
As it stands, Reed Sheppard is an outstanding value on his rookie contract. When it comes time for his rookie extension, his team will have to answer (theme alert) difficult questions. The same holds for Amen Thompson, only a year sooner. How much do you pay the best defensive wing in basketball if he’s a non-shooting role player?
None of this is optimal, but can we be realistic for a moment? The Spurs have Victor Wembanyama, and Dylan Harper would be the Rockets’ franchise player. The Thunder. Period.
Sure, that’s just two teams. Otherwise, as Nikola Jokic eventually ages, the Rockets have an opportunity to solidify themselves as the third-best team in the Western Conference for years to come.
…Hang the banner.
The third-best team in the conference consolidates, especially with another half-decade as the fourth-best team in front of them. It isn’t good enough to win an NBA championship.
This isn’t what we wanted. It wasn’t Plan A. Historically speaking, it is the de facto Plan B.
Rockets fans will say that our guys are not being optimized. There’s some truth in that. Ime Udoka’s read-and-react offense is suboptimal for a roster that’s light on pass/dribble/shoot players. Yet, that points to the broader issue:
This roster is light on pass/dribble/shoot guys.
It’s heavy on specialists. Players who are outlier strong in one area, but struggle in another. The closest player to reaching pass/dribble/shoot in the young core is Sheppard, and only time will tell if Udoka can scheme around his defensive shortcomings.
Maybe you love these kids. Perhaps you’ve grown attached. That’s cute, but if you take a long, honest look at the Oklahoma City Thunder and the San Antonio Spurs, it’s impossible to come away feeling like the Rockets have enough.
Harsh, but true.
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